Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x036b…ead4
sports · 48 markets active 2h ago
5.0score
+$7,619 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$7,713 · open −$126
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,738
Realized+$7,713
Unrealized−$126
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses28 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions13
Markets (closed)35 / 48
History coverage106d
Avg bet$5,727
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 13 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,596
7 days+$6,596
14 days+$6,596
30 days+$6,596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 32¢ 30¢ $966 $927 −$39 (-4%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Spain 73¢ 72¢ $548 $544 −$4 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $649 $535 −$114 (-18%)
Halle Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Daniil Medvedev Daniil Medvedev 73¢ 76¢ $146 $153 +$7 (+5%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals No 70¢ 73¢ $128 $134 +$5 (+4%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $77 $109 +$31 (+41%)
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals No 94¢ 96¢ $74 $76 +$1 (+2%)
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals No 72¢ 66¢ $72 $66 −$6 (-9%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Ben Shelton 66¢ 60¢ $53 $49 −$4 (-8%)
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals No 92¢ 96¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+4%)
Jürgen Locadia: 1+ assists No 92¢ 95¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+3%)
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Brazil 38¢ 30¢ $43 $35 −$8 (-19%)
Pedri: 2+ goals No 93¢ 97¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 No 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Anna Bondar 46¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? No 6¢ 0¢ $985 $0 −$985 (-100%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Over 3¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 204.5 Jun 14 $51 +$148 +291%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Jun 14 $66 +$255 +388%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $153 +$996 +650%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 201.5 Jun 14 $75 +$290 +388%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 Jun 14 $616 +$616 +100%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 Jun 14 $58 +$46 +79%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 Jun 14 $230 +$239 +104%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $2,528 +$2,472 +98%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 Jun 14 $500 +$681 +136%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 Jun 14 $114 +$97 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 206.5 Jun 14 $74 +$180 +243%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 14 $135 +$292 +216%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 14 $14 +$14 +100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $42 +$34 +82%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ assists Jun 14 $124 +$56 +45%
Raphinha: 1+ assists Jun 14 $13 +$9 +67%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ assists Jun 14 $147 +$63 +43%
Achraf Hakimi: 1+ assists Jun 14 $117 +$50 +43%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 13 $42 −$41 -98%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists Jun 13 $30 +$12 +42%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $422 +$142 +34%
Josh Hart: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 6.5 Jun 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $111,745 +$224 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 08 $14,012 +$42 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $2,433 −$251 -10%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $985 −$985 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $14,933 +$35 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $12,068 +$104 +1%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 07 $31,740 +$382 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 31 $389 −$13 -3%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $14,354 +$14 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Mar 04 $22,181 +$39 +0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $35,008 +$1,523 +4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $6,496 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 56% +$343
world 28% +$1,705
economics 14% −$931
sports 2% +$6,199
other 1% +$271
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY No 70¢ $129 1h
Jürgen Locadia: 1+ assists BUY No 92¢ $40 2h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY No 72¢ $73 2h
Pedri: 2+ goals BUY No 93¢ $29 16h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 96¢ $30 16h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 93¢ $44 16h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 42¢ $14 16h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 42¢ $130 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 49¢ $5 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 49¢ $0 17h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $5 17h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 18.5 BUY No 54¢ $2 17h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 42¢ $31 17h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 42¢ $127 17h
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 50¢ $325 17h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $37 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 50¢ $205 17h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 42¢ $10 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 50¢ $75 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 50¢ $50 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 50¢ $115 17h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 42¢ $7 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 50¢ $2 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 50¢ $122 17h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $29 17h
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 50¢ $101 17h
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 15.5 BUY No 42¢ $145 17h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $3 17h
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 BUY No 50¢ $42 17h
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 17.5 BUY No 49¢ $149 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+63.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +127.6% +105.9% 87% 87% +97.0%
≤30d 23 +127.6% +105.9% 87% 87% +97.0%
≤90d 31 +91.1% +72.9% 81% 65% -6.7%
all 35 +80.8% +63.6% 80% 57% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.6% 57% -7.0%
10% ← realistic here +47.9% 57% -15.9%
15% +33.6% 54% -24.0%
20% +20.5% 43% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,738.44 · official $2,740.94 (match) · 333 history records