Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:00:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0369…2a12 world 646 markets active 7h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate46%277W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day25.9pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$2
14 days−$38
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$45
other 20% −$14
sports 17% +$35
politics 9% −$8
tech 3% +$8
culture 3% −$28
finance 2% +$4
crypto 1% −$4
economics 0% −$10
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +18.7% +7.4% 33% 11% -11.3%
≤30d 157 -1.4% -10.8% 46% 25% -12.7%
≤90d 603 -1.7% -11.1% 46% 31% -11.1%
all 603 -1.7% -11.1% 46% 31% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 31% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 23% -19.6%
15% -27.3% 16% -27.4%
20% -34.5% 12% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$223
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses277 / 326
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions43
Markets (closed)603 / 646
History coverage122d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day25.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 603 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 65¢ 94¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+43%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in June? No 74¢ 99¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+34%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 75¢ 98¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+31%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 76¢ 90¢ $8 $9 +$2 (+19%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 81¢ 96¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 64¢ 73¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
FDA approves Retatrutide this year? No 74¢ 88¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 79¢ 88¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+11%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 91¢ 98¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+8%)
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 96¢ $7 $9 +$1 (+21%)
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? No 70¢ 76¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+10%)
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $8 $7 −$0 (-4%)
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? No 71¢ 84¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+18%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Weed rescheduled by December 31? No 57¢ 73¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+27%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? Yes 68¢ 53¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,100 (LOW) in June? No 78¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 34¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? No 84¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+18%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 86¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 66 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $5 $0 -6%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $8 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 16 $9 −$1 -13%
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa Jun 16 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $2 $0 -4%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $8 $0 -3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 13 $8 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $8 −$1 -14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4 $0 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $2 +$8 +474%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +26%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $14 −$13 -91%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 07 $8 $0 -5%
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 Jun 07 $11 +$1 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 07 $45 −$6 -12%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 07 $8 +$4 +51%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $8 $0 +2%
Will Azerbaijan join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 07 $1 $0 +14%
Trump's face on US gold coin by July 4? Jun 07 $7 −$5 -82%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $13 −$2 -14%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31? Jun 07 $8 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 7? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -44%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 7? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $16 −$12 -74%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $18 $0 +2%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 06 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 05 $35 −$2 -7%
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Jun 05 $8 $0 +2%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $8 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 01 $10 −$1 -6%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 35¢ $1 7h
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House BUY Yes 35¢ $2 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 79¢ $4 7h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $2 7h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 79¢ $4 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $3 8h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $3 8h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $2 10h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $2 10h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 10h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 10h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $5 12h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 12h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 28¢ $1 14h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? SELL No 28¢ $4 14h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 28¢ $1 22h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? SELL Yes 68¢ $3 22h
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 22h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 28¢ $3 22h
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? BUY No 28¢ $1 22h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $1 24h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 73¢ $7 24h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 25h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 48¢ $2 25h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa SELL Yes 48¢ $5 25h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 51¢ $3 33h
Will the US government rescind its ban on all foreign use of Claude Fa BUY Yes 50¢ $5 33h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $2 37h
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $5 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $222.61 · official $222.25 (match) · 3370 history records