Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:23:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x0367…e7fb sports 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$283 (+17%) realized +$280 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%15W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$251
7 days+$99
14 days+$215
30 days+$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% +$640
other 39% −$423
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -9.6% -18.2% 24% 24% -2.6%
≤30d 62 +0.1% -9.5% 24% 24% +2.9%
≤90d 62 +0.1% -9.5% 24% 24% +2.9%
all 62 +0.1% -9.5% 24% 24% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 24% +2.9%
10% -18.1% 24% -6.9%
15% -26.0% 24% -15.9%
20% -33.3% 23% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$85 vs −$23 · ×3.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized+$280
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses15 / 47
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage15d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Over 24¢ 26¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 Over 12¢ 12¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $52 +$18 +35%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 26 $21 −$20 -96%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $103 +$275 +267%
Leroy Sané: 2+ goals Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $3 −$3 -96%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $62 +$235 +378%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $29 −$27 -96%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $21 +$52 +252%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Algeria? Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 2+ assists Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 6.5 Jun 24 $31 −$31 -100%
Luka Modrić: 2+ assists Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $21 +$33 +163%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $26 +$30 +116%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $21 +$69 +336%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $41 +$27 +65%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 23 $21 +$122 +590%
Game Handicap: OG (-1.5) vs REKONIX (+1.5) Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Neither team to score first? Jun 22 $21 +$59 +287%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $3 +$22 +704%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $41 −$41 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $21 −$21 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 3 - 0 Panama? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $36 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 16¢ $70 1h
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 92¢ $379 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $52 4h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 24¢ $103 11h
Leroy Sané: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 27h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 31h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 9¢ $52 31h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 46h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 Mexico? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 46h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 51¢ $298 46h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $21 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 85¢ $73 47h
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 2 Brazil? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $8 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $62 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $21 2d
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $26 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $21 2d
Luka Modrić: 2+ assists BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 3d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 94¢ $90 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $87.67 · official $87.67 (match) · 118 history records