Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:44:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
03 0x0366…a001 sports 16 markets active 3h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized −$174 · open +$188
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,445now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% −$80
sports 34% −$85
other 28% +$268
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 14 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 50% -21.0%
all 14 +1.1% -8.5% 50% 50% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 50% -21.0%
10% -17.3% 50% -28.6%
15% -25.3% 50% -35.5%
20% -32.6% 50% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$54 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$1,445
Realized−$174
Unrealized+$188
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage38d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $536 $804 +$268 (+50%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Yes $721 $640 −$80 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 16 $41 +$39 +97%
Donovan Mitchell: Points O/U 26.5 May 16 $41 +$39 +97%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 May 16 $35 +$45 +127%
Jalen Duren: Points O/U 10.5 May 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 May 14 $168 −$166 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 May 14 $2 +$2 +105%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 212.5 May 14 $50 +$50 +100%
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 26.5 May 13 $34 −$33 -98%
Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 26.5 May 13 $46 +$44 +96%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 13 $78 +$72 +93%
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 May 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Evan Mobley: Points O/U 14.5 May 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Julius Randle: Points O/U 16.5 May 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $18 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $330 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 4h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,444.57 · official $1,444.57 (match) · 166 history records