Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x0366…7aa6
sports · 351 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$41 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$62 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$59
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses34 / 316
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)350 / 351
History coverage648d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%
Chart Positions 1 History 350 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$29
30 days−$51
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $75 $0 -0%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $148 −$2 -2%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $78 −$2 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 12 $52 $0 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $107 −$1 -1%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $281 −$1 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $160 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $125 −$1 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $110 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $59 −$1 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 08 $52 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $124 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 07 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $51 $0 +1%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $203 −$4 -2%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 05 $59 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -3%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $241 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $52 −$1 -3%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $41 $0 -1%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $55 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $63 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $88 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $74 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $176 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $37 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $197 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 30 $120 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $91 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $141 −$2 -2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $224 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $64 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 33% −$15
other 27% −$5
politics 23% −$13
economics 8% −$6
crypto 3% −$9
culture 3% −$5
world 2% −$2
tech 1% −$4
finance 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $59 38m
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $51 1h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $51 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $56 8h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $56 15h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 95¢ $58 16h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 94¢ $58 23h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $51 23h
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $52 28h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $53 29h
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $54 35h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 94¢ $60 35h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $61 35h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $26 36h
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 40h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $51 40h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $34 44h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $17 44h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $45 45h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $46 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $63 2d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $47 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $29 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 95¢ $40 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? BUY No 94¢ $40 3d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 91¢ $48 3d
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 93¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -0.8% -10.3% 11% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 75 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 75 -0.9% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.3%
all 350 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.03 · official $59.03 (match) · 1356 history records