Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:58:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0363…c37f world 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%11W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 53% −$5
other 18% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.7% -10.2% 15% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 20 -1.6% -10.9% 15% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 20 -1.6% -10.9% 15% 0% -10.1%
all 45 -0.7% -10.1% 24% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses11 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage316d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $70 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $39 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $26 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $39 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $42 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $37 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $77 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $87 −$1 -1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $14 −$1 -10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $3 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $40 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $17 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 -7%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 14 $10 $0 -2%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Aug 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $1 $0 -4%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 13 $36 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 94°F or higher on Aug Aug 12 $7 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 11 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on Aug Aug 11 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 10 $56 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 08 $9 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by August 31? Aug 07 $6 $0 +0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 07 $56 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $35 21h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $26 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $6 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $29 42h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 46h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $11 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $16 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $23 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $15 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $20 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $36 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $30 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $6 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $37 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $24 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records