Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:42:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x0362…9661 politics 743 markets active 290d ago coverage 209d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable politics specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 209d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$445,486 (+56%) realized +$445,486 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +37% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate82%610W / 133L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$1,072per market
Trades / day13.5pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 209d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 38% +$58,926
other 27% +$82,203
world 11% +$18,061
crypto 8% +$23,838
sports 7% +$1,076
economics 3% +$1,323
tech 3% +$7,015
weather 2% +$432
culture 1% +$473
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 743 +36.7% +23.7% 82% 53% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.5 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.7% 53% +12.4%
10% ← realistic here +11.9% 38% +1.7%
15% +1.1% 27% -8.2%
20% -8.8% 20% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +37% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$747) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +40% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$334 vs −$82 · ×4.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×20.12 per $1 lost it wins $20.12
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$445,486
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses610 / 133
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)743 / 743
History coverage209d ⚠
Avg bet$1,072
Trades / day13.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 743 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will JD Vance say "Crazy" or "Lunatic" during remarks in Wisconsin on Aug 28 $20 +$5 +27%
Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August Aug 28 $80 +$1 +1%
Will JD Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during remarks in Aug 28 $40 +$72 +184%
Will JD Vance say "Fake News" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28 Aug 28 $123 +$97 +78%
Will JD Vance say "Medicare" or "Medicaid" during remarks in Wisconsin Aug 28 $252 +$54 +21%
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (August Aug 26 $125 +$52 +41%
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president Aug 26 $1,147 +$88 +8%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 1 Aug 26 $1,459 +$568 +39%
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (August 25 - 31) Aug 26 $2,428 +$569 +23%
Will Trump say "Communist" this week? Aug 13 $3,648 +$72 +2%
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? Aug 13 $5,992 +$799 +13%
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? Aug 11 $73 +$47 +64%
Will Trump say "Kosovo" this week? Aug 11 $212 +$9 +4%
Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference? Aug 11 $392 +$18 +4%
Will Trump say "Thug" or "Cartel" during the DC Crime Press Conference Aug 11 $575 +$105 +18%
Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference? Aug 11 $908 +$120 +13%
Will Trump say "India" or "Pakistan" during the Armenian PM bilateral Aug 11 $1,173 +$33 +3%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 02 $1 $0 -2%
Brad Lander gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York City Aug 02 $8,039 +$174 +2%
Jessica Ramos gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York Ci Aug 02 $7 −$7 -100%
Adrienne Adams gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York C Aug 02 $3,918 +$82 +2%
Will Trump say "Hillary" this week? Aug 02 $5,151 +$472 +9%
Will Kamala Harris say "Tariff" during Colbert show on July 31? Aug 02 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris say "Project 2025" during Colbert show on July 31? Aug 02 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Kamala Harris say "Book" during Colbert show on July 31? Aug 02 $145 +$7 +5%
Will Trump say "Biden's war" this week? Aug 02 $290 +$56 +19%
Will Powell say "Trump" during July Press Conference? Jul 30 $4,098 +$1,871 +46%
Will Trump say "Nvidia" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 24 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Trump say "Drill baby drill" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 24 $113 +$3 +3%
Will Trump say "President Xi" during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 24 $253 +$36 +14%
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 15+ times during his AI Jul 24 $287 +$32 +11%
Will Trump say "China" 7+ times during his AI speech on July 23? Jul 24 $402 +$71 +18%
Will Trump meet with Jerome Powell by July 31? Jul 24 $105 +$593 +566%
Will Trump say "WSJ" or "Wall Street Journal" this week? Jul 23 $41 +$1 +2%
Will Trump say "Hoax" this week? Jul 23 $225 +$11 +5%
Will Trump say "Knucklehead" this week? Jul 23 $245 +$31 +13%
Will Trump say "Witch hunt" this week? Jul 23 $481 +$85 +18%
Will Trump say "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" during the crypto bill sign Jul 19 $124 +$3 +2%
Will Trump say "Cynthia" or "Lummis" during the crypto bill signing ce Jul 19 $113 +$27 +24%
Will Trump say "Big beautiful bill" during the crypto bill signing cer Jul 19 $178 +$92 +52%
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during the cry Jul 19 $247 +$29 +12%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Coin" 7+ times during the crypto bill sign Jul 19 $500 +$64 +13%
Will Trump say "BRICS" this week? Jul 19 $1,530 +$21 +1%
Will Gillis say "Epstein" during the opening monologue at the ESPYs? Jul 17 $5,534 +$539 +10%
Will Trump say "Skedaddle" this week? Jul 15 $996 +$121 +12%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Jul 09 $24,452 +$29 +0%
Will Trump say "Communist" this week? Jul 08 $1,190 +$316 +27%
US kicks trans members out of military before July? Jul 05 $2,444 +$867 +36%
Trump x Xi talk before July? Jul 05 $565 +$18 +3%
CNN/MSNBC sued for libel against Trump? Jul 05 $95 +$20 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will JD Vance say "Crazy" or "Lunatic" during remarks in Wisconsin on BUY Yes 79¢ $20 290d
Will JD Vance say "God" 3+ times during remarks in Wisconsin on August BUY Yes 99¢ $80 290d
Will JD Vance say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during remarks in BUY Yes 35¢ $40 290d
Will JD Vance say "Fake News" during remarks in Wisconsin on August 28 BUY Yes 56¢ $123 290d
Will JD Vance say "Medicare" or "Medicaid" during remarks in Wisconsin BUY Yes 82¢ $252 290d
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (August 25 - 31) BUY Yes 67¢ $1,000 292d
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (August 25 - 31) BUY Yes 95¢ $9 292d
Will Trump say "Shit" this week? (August 25 - 31) BUY Yes 95¢ $1,419 292d
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (August BUY Yes 71¢ $125 292d
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president BUY Yes 96¢ $10 293d
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president BUY Yes 93¢ $120 293d
Will Trump say "Kim Jong Un" during events with South Korean president BUY Yes 93¢ $1,017 293d
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 1 BUY Yes 72¢ $459 300d
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during Zelensky events on August 1 BUY Yes 72¢ $1,000 300d
Will Trump say "Communist" this week? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 305d
Will Trump say "Communist" this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $628 305d
Will Trump say "Communist" this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,000 305d
Will Trump say "Communist" this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,000 305d
Will Trump say "Communist" this week? BUY Yes 98¢ $1,000 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 95¢ $76 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 94¢ $299 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,084 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,084 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,084 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,000 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 87¢ $1,000 305d
Will Trump say "Cookie" this week? BUY Yes 84¢ $365 305d
Will Trump say "Autopen" during the DC Crime Press Conference? BUY Yes 96¢ $392 307d
Will Trump say "ICE" during the DC Crime Press Conference? BUY Yes 88¢ $908 307d
Will Trump say "Transgender" this week? BUY Yes 61¢ $73 307d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records