Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0362…2af9 sports 841 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,748 (-2%) realized −$1,734 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%395W / 441L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$1,192est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$174
7 days−$619
14 days−$979
30 days−$685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$988
world 2% −$364
crypto 1% −$361
politics 1% −$272
other 0% −$116
finance 0% −$19
economics 0% −$41
culture 0% −$15
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -36.7% -42.7% 32% 24% -40.3%
≤30d 102 -5.7% -14.7% 44% 40% -18.7%
≤90d 399 +2.6% -7.2% 46% 44% -11.8%
all 836 +1.7% -8.0% 47% 45% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 45% -11.6%
10% -16.8% 41% -20.0%
15% -24.8% 37% -27.7%
20% -32.2% 27% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$79 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized−$1,734
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses395 / 441
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$1,192
Open positions4
Markets (closed)836 / 841
History coverage243d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 68¢ 60¢ $99 $87 −$12 (-12%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 Over 85¢ 84¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 54¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $81 −$43 -53%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -20%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $56 −$53 -95%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $55 −$35 -64%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 +$20 +64%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $28 +$5 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$8 -39%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 +$31 +62%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $106 −$106 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $37 −$31 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $55 −$31 -56%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $115 +$9 +8%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $64 +$46 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $70 +$30 +44%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $32 −$19 -61%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $73 +$27 +38%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $18 −$18 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $72 −$72 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $132 +$12 +9%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $33 −$33 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $86 −$86 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $45 +$15 +34%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $165 +$21 +13%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$41 +488%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $59 +$3 +5%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $26 −$24 -92%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $40 −$9 -23%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $26 +$14 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $31 −$17 -56%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 −$18 -88%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $20 +$11 +57%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $48 −$9 -19%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $70 −$5 -6%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $69 +$31 +46%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $204 −$178 -87%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $195 −$180 -92%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $137 +$163 +119%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $58 +$42 +72%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $148 +$52 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 68¢ $100 43m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 6¢ $11 51m
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 1h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $20 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $40 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 26¢ $36 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 34¢ $51 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 65¢ $235 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 31¢ $116 2h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $41 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 25¢ $35 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 27¢ $40 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 67¢ $38 4h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 8¢ $16 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 1¢ $3 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 20¢ $20 47h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 8¢ $9 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $55 2d
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $47 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 33¢ $32 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 SELL Over 22¢ $12 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $28 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $31 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 61¢ $51 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 10¢ $125 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 60¢ $35 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Top Esports 6¢ $6 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.22 · official $165.22 (match) · 3044 history records