Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:58:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
03 0x035f…edfd sports 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$464 (-10%) realized −$464 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate14%5W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$934now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$4
politics 42% −$7
sports 13% −$455
crypto 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -22.9% -30.3% 14% 8% -20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 8% -20.5%
10% -37.0% 8% -28.1%
15% -43.0% 5% -35.0%
20% -48.6% 5% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 87% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$934
Realized−$464
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses5 / 32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)37 / 39
History coverage622d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $710 $710 −$0 (-0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $224 $224 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $613 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,060 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Buccaneers vs. Texans Sep 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Tigers vs. White Sox Sep 11 $7 +$6 +79%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dashamir Shehi be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 20 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? May 12 $4 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? May 08 $5 $0 -1%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 07 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Vancouver Canucks win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jaime Battiste be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? May 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 05 $6 $0 -1%
Will France win Eurovision 2025? May 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Apr 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $4 $0 -3%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 01 $2 $0 -6%
Timberwolves vs. Rockets Dec 30 $114 −$114 -100%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $115 −$115 -100%
South Florida vs. San José State Dec 26 $140 −$140 -100%
Will there be 175,000,000 or more votes cast in the U.S. Presidential Dec 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Hawks vs. Bucks Dec 05 $77 −$77 -100%
Spurs vs. Suns Dec 04 $56 +$20 +35%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $38 −$38 -100%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $32 +$20 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $710 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $447 1h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $612 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $447 4h
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $613 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,059 4h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,060 16h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,044 16h
Will Pete Hegseth be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,045 22h
Buccaneers vs. Texans BUY Texans 57¢ $16 276d
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY Tigers 56¢ $7 308d
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? BUY No 100¢ $3 359d
Will Dashamir Shehi be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 20 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 400d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $5 400d
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2025 Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $5 400d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? SELL No 68¢ $4 401d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in May? BUY No 69¢ $4 402d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? SELL No 98¢ $5 405d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? SELL Yes 71¢ $4 406d
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? BUY Yes 72¢ $4 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $5 407d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 98¢ $6 408d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 98¢ $6 409d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 92¢ $5 411d
Will France win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 412d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 94¢ $5 413d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 94¢ $5 414d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $933.53 · official $933.53 (match) · 78 history records