Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x035f…f16f other 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 350d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%42W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2
world 24% +$2
politics 24% $0
sports 10% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.4% -8.3% 56% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 25 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 71 -1.3% -10.7% 48% 0% -9.5%
all 89 -1.8% -11.2% 47% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

350d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses42 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)89 / 92
History coverage350d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 45¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $25 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $137 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $24 +$2 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $40 +$2 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $22 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $92 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $59 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $71 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $27 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $81 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $9 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 31 $44 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $46 +$2 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $95 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $72 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $4 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $29 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $2 $0 -8%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $38 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $37 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $176 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $67 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $34 $0 -1%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $70 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $97 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $75 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $71 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $104 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 12 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $26 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $26 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 27h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 29h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $10 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $4 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $12 32h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $25 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $25 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $26 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $25 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 52¢ $25 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $6 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $23 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 63¢ $23 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $8 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $24 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $19 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $17 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 36¢ $24 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 36¢ $24 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.43 · official $0.00 (match) · 373 history records