Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

03 0x035c…ff43 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$31 (+4%) realized +$70 · open −$39

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip

Net edge-14%after slip

Net WR54%break-even

Win rate54%7W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$50per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Fees−$3est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$40

7 days+$25

14 days+$25

30 days+$25

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +54%

net ROI/market (all)-14.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	13	-5.3%	-14.3%	54%	54%	-6.0%
≤30d	13	-5.3%	-14.3%	54%	54%	-6.0%
≤90d	13	-5.3%	-14.3%	54%	54%	-6.0%
all	13	-5.3%	-14.3%	54%	54%	-6.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-14.3%	54%	-6.0%
10%	-22.5%	54%	-15.0%
15%	-30.0%	54%	-23.2%
20%	-36.9%	38%	-30.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 36% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -5% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -14% → late +2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$44 vs −$47 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.09 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage

Net worth$41

Realized+$70

Unrealized−$39

Win rate (resolved)54%

Wins / losses7 / 6

Est. fees paid−$3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)13 / 16

History coverage8d

Avg bet$50

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 13 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Son Heungmin: 2+ shots	Yes	79¢	40¢	$50	$26	−$24 (-49%)
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots	Yes	78¢	40¢	$30	$15	−$15 (-49%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$15	+$5	+36%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$51	+$74	+145%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$25	+$17	+67%
Spread: England (-2.5)	Jun 17	$21	−$21	-100%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals	Jun 17	$31	−$31	-100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	−$5	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	Jun 15	$58	+$39	+67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	−$100	-98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$25	−$25	-99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$51	+$33	+65%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 13	$102	−$100	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$102	+$111	+109%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 11	$67	+$28	+42%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Raúl Jiménez: 2+ shots	BUY Yes	78¢	$30	1h
Son Heungmin: 2+ shots	BUY Yes	79¢	$50	1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-	BUY	37¢	$66	8h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$15	12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$125	12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	40¢	$51	14h
Harry Kane: 3+ goals	BUY Yes	31¢	$31	16h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	14¢	$21	18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	18h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	59¢	$25	18h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	39¢	$102	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY No	73¢	$25	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car	BUY Diego Lopes	59¢	$58	3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	60¢	$51	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$102	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$212	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$102	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	70¢	$67	7d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.