Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:18:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x035b…c6dd crypto 1015 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 8d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (374 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$12,285 (-24%) realized −$12,213 · open −$72
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate58%470W / 342L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day373.7pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$1,025now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% +$8,909
weather 7% +$849
sports 4% +$318
other 2% +$2
world 0% +$786
tech 0% +$1
finance 0% −$18
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (374 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 742 +8.7% -1.7% 57% 42% +15.8%
≤30d 812 +14.1% +3.2% 58% 43% +15.7%
≤90d 812 +14.1% +3.2% 58% 43% +15.7%
all 812 +14.1% +3.2% 58% 43% +15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover373.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.2% 43% +15.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.7% 38% +4.7%
15% -15.7% 34% -5.5%
20% -23.9% 30% -14.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$27 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.95 per $1 lost it wins $1.95
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,025
Realized−$12,213
Unrealized−$72
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses470 / 342
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions215
Markets (closed)812 / 1015
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day373.7
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 215 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 85¢ 84¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 79¢ 99¢ $22 $28 +$6 (+26%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 30¢ 28¢ $27 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? No 81¢ 97¢ $20 $24 +$4 (+20%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $15 $22 +$8 (+50%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 87¢ 86¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 64¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+18%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+6%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 55¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+2%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 60¢ 60¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
SBF released from custody in 2026? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 80¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 93¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 271 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 15 $10 −$3 -26%
Makarska: Tamara Zidansek vs Polona Hercog Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Russia vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
ITF Montemor-O-Novo: Francisca Jorge vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Pri Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Buse vs Humbert Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Connecticut Sun vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 168.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Democratic Party win 13 upper-level local government races? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 21? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Central African Republic vs. Togo end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Samsung Lions Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-05? Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 66¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 32m
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 46m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 61¢ $10 50m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $3 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $168 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 86¢ $613 1h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $3 6h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $3 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,024.78 · official $1,023.28 (match) · 3500 history records