trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? | Jun 12 | $4 | −$4 | -95% |
| Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? | May 31 | $16 | −$16 | -100% |
| Will Rayo Vallecano win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa Conference League? | May 31 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? | May 31 | $11 | +$23 | +214% |
| Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? | May 31 | $29 | +$19 | +64% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -100.0% | -100.0% | 0% | 0% | -100.0% |
| ≤30d | 5 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 40% | 40% | +6.4% |
| ≤90d | 5 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 40% | 40% | +6.4% |
| all | 5 | -4.4% | -13.5% | 40% | 40% | +6.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -13.5% | 40% | +6.4% |
| 10% | -21.8% | 40% | -3.8% |
| 15% | -29.3% | 40% | -13.1% |
| 20% | -36.3% | 40% | -21.6% |