Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x0358…9c93 world 13 markets active 3d ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$23,377 (-20%) realized −$23,377 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9,150per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$28,032
14 days−$28,032
30 days−$22,620
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% +$4,633
sports 31% −$28,411
other 15% +$379
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.5% -24.4% 75% 25% -56.1%
≤30d 6 -7.7% -16.5% 83% 33% -27.7%
≤90d 6 -7.7% -16.5% 83% 33% -27.7%
all 13 -15.7% -23.8% 54% 31% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.8% 31% -27.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.1% 15% -34.3%
15% -37.7% 8% -40.6%
20% -43.8% 8% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,076 vs −$5,155 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23,377
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage162d
Avg bet$9,150
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $28,799 −$28,773 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $18,011 +$379 +2%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$14 +27%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $7,658 +$349 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $36,100 +$2,823 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $22,000 +$2,589 +12%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $1,000 −$152 -15%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 18 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jan 16 $1,036 +$1,155 +112%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jan 16 $1,000 +$222 +22%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 16 $1,500 −$243 -16%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $200 −$200 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 13 $100 −$61 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $20,018 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $8,781 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 98¢ $18,011 3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $50 3d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $7,658 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18,369 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $17,100 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $17,000 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16,000 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $3,554 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $11,000 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10,000 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3,000 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $2,024 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $1,000 26d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 69¢ $848 107d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,000 107d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,500 152d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2,191 154d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1,222 154d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $1,257 154d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $100 155d
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $100 155d
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? SELL Yes $39 157d
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $100 159d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $500 164d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $1,000 164d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $1,000 164d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,036 165d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records