Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0358…95a4 weather 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$231 (-3%) realized −$246 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate69%36W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$133per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$63
7 days−$13
14 days+$50
30 days−$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$253
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 75% 38% +1.5%
≤30d 45 +18.8% +7.5% 69% 42% -11.5%
≤90d 52 +14.0% +3.2% 69% 38% -10.5%
all 52 +14.0% +3.2% 69% 38% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.2% 38% -10.5%
10% -6.7% 29% -19.0%
15% -15.7% 19% -26.9%
20% -24.0% 17% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$66 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$246
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses36 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage35d
Avg bet$133
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? No 69¢ 100¢ $34 $50 +$15 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 18 $43 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? Jun 18 $216 +$44 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $40 +$31 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $153 −$140 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $278 +$33 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 12 $318 +$18 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $177 +$23 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 10 $7 −$6 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 8? Jun 09 $307 +$23 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 9? Jun 08 $13 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 05 $20 −$18 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 5? Jun 05 $212 +$19 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $38 +$16 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 4? Jun 04 $184 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 3? Jun 03 $469 +$30 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $47 +$3 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 2? Jun 02 $376 +$23 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $379 +$19 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $64 −$44 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $44 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $522 −$518 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 30? May 30 $558 +$24 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 29 $152 +$85 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $70 +$10 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? May 27 $33 +$8 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $12 −$10 -87%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 26 $24 +$21 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 25? May 26 $12 +$18 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $78 +$22 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 24? May 24 $60 −$54 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C or higher on May 22? May 22 $113 +$32 +29%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 22? May 22 $10 −$9 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on May 21? May 21 $31 +$19 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 21? May 21 $3 +$20 +692%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 21? May 21 $24 +$24 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 21? May 21 $75 −$61 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 21? May 21 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 21? May 21 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C or higher on May 20? May 20 $67 +$57 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 20? May 20 $57 −$45 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 15? May 20 $10 +$40 +400%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 15? May 18 $41 −$37 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 16? May 16 $180 +$19 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $190 +$10 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 16? May 16 $452 +$44 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15? May 15 $43 −$26 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? SELL No 91¢ $45 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 69¢ $28 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 84¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? BUY No 87¢ $26 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $187 26h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 20¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? SELL No 20¢ $10 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 36¢ $19 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $13 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 29h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $3 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $0 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $1 44h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 3¢ $1 45h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 69¢ $28 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.98 · official $49.98 (match) · 218 history records