Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0357…6a7a other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$241 (-38%) realized −$241 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate36%4W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$25
14 days−$264
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$92
sports 28% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -55.9% -60.1% 33% 17% -22.3%
≤30d 11 -53.8% -58.2% 36% 18% -46.9%
≤90d 11 -53.8% -58.2% 36% 18% -46.9%
all 11 -53.8% -58.2% 36% 18% -46.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.2% 18% -46.9%
10% -62.2% 9% -51.9%
15% -65.8% 9% -56.6%
20% -69.2% 0% -60.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$46 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$241
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses4 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage10d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$7 +8%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$10 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $86 +$32 +38%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $151 −$151 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$7 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $40 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 6d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $117 7d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 72¢ $86 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 8d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $100 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 21 history records