Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:05:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0355…cff4 crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$350 (-12%) realized −$350 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%41W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$300
crypto 32% −$50
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 42 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 0% -14.7%
≤90d 42 -4.5% -13.6% 93% 0% -14.7%
all 45 -6.4% -15.3% 91% 0% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 0% -20.9%
10% -23.4% 0% -28.5%
15% -30.8% 0% -35.4%
20% -37.6% 0% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$89 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$350
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses41 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)45 / 48
History coverage141d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? No 100¢ 97¢ $12 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? Jun 11 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 10? Jun 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $85 on June 9? Jun 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 5? Jun 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? Jun 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? Jun 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 1? Jun 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 30? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 30? Jun 01 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 29? May 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? May 30 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Sadegh Mahsouli be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 26? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 27? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 21? May 25 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 21? May 25 $31 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20? May 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 20? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 19? May 20 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 18? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 19 $31 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on January 27? Feb 04 $1 $0 +0%
Netflix (NFLX) Up or Down on February 3? Feb 03 $302 −$302 -100%
Will Reinier de Ridder be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31 Jan 27 $1,609 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $12 57m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 58m
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $12 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $33 2d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $11 7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $33 7d
Will Solana reach $85 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $11 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $32 8d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 8? BUY Yes 99¢ $31 9d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $31 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $11 13d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $31 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $12 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 14d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $31 15d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 1? BUY No 98¢ $11 16d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $31 16d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 18d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 18d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $12 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 29? BUY No 99¢ $31 19d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.16 · official $48.16 (match) · 91 history records