Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T21:21:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0354…2913 sports 431 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$1,479 (+2%) realized +$1,496 · open −$780
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate53%217W / 190L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$189per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$275est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,827now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$795
7 days−$4,678
14 days+$397
30 days+$971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% +$2,768
world 17% −$277
politics 8% −$452
other 8% −$838
crypto 1% −$428
finance 1% +$22
tech 0% −$58
culture 0% −$1
economics 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 114 -55.4% -59.6% 28% 11% -33.2%
≤30d 203 -18.8% -26.5% 50% 30% -7.5%
≤90d 256 -17.9% -25.7% 48% 30% -13.6%
all 407 -4.8% -13.9% 53% 36% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 36% -7.8%
10% -22.1% 29% -16.6%
15% -29.7% 24% -24.7%
20% -36.6% 19% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$75 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$2,827
Realized+$1,496
Unrealized−$780
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses217 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$275
Open positions23
Markets (closed)407 / 431
History coverage138d
Avg bet$189
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.2–0.3%? Yes 88¢ 95¢ $522 $565 +$43 (+8%)
Will Shenna Bellows win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? No 90¢ 82¢ $505 $460 −$45 (-9%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $547 $349 −$198 (-36%)
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 97¢ 60¢ $372 $228 −$145 (-39%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 84¢ 84¢ $168 $169 +$1 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 64¢ 42¢ $256 $168 −$88 (-34%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $171 $162 −$9 (-5%)
Will The MongolZ qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Yes 73¢ 60¢ $146 $121 −$25 (-17%)
Will The MongolZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $89 $121 +$32 (+36%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No 93¢ 54¢ $154 $89 −$65 (-42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 93¢ 97¢ $67 $70 +$3 (+4%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 74¢ 75¢ $68 $69 +$1 (+1%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $75 $61 −$14 (-18%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 64¢ 28¢ $128 $55 −$73 (-57%)
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 79¢ 42¢ $98 $51 −$47 (-47%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 20¢ $54 $39 −$15 (-28%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 55¢ 22¢ $88 $36 −$52 (-59%)
Will Hannah Pingree win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-5%)
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Yes 55¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will m0NESY have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 33¢ 0¢ $82 $1 −$81 (-98%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-68%)
Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-83%)
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? No 28¢ 0¢ $432 $0 −$432 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 TheMongolz 62¢ 0¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $11 +$2 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 14 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $299 −$89 -30%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $200 −$18 -9%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $46 +$54 +117%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $224 +$76 +34%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $839 +$60 +7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $685 +$7 +1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $495 +$5 +1%
Will Vitality qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $1,150 +$30 +3%
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Jun 14 $51 +$2 +4%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,369 +$39 +3%
Will Aurora qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 14 $435 +$82 +19%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $36 $0 +1%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $55 −$55 -99%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 14 $9 −$6 -71%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 14 $459 +$6 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $703 +$435 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $601 +$103 +17%
Will B8 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 13 $1,173 +$63 +5%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$4 -31%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $18 −$13 -73%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $42 −$27 -64%
Will Natus Vincere reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $47 −$4 -9%
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Jun 12 $96 $0 +0%
Will Troy Jackson win the 2026 Maine Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 11 $8 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $86 −$85 -99%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $345 −$11 -3%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $242 +$17 +7%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 10 $40 +$6 +15%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $44 +$8 +18%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $128 −$128 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $60 +$4 +7%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $16 +$8 +49%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $438 −$432 -98%
Will FUT qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $4 $0 +9%
Will M80 qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $93 +$1 +1%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $66 $0 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 08 $282 +$6 +2%
Will Astralis qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $120 +$40 +33%
Will Astralis qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? Jun 08 $119 +$7 +6%
Will paiN qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -98%
Will MIBR qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 08 $59 −$58 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 08 $99 −$99 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $273 −$255 -94%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 08 $73 −$73 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $69 −$69 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 19m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $18 56m
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $20 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $12 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 97¢ $56 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 95¢ $19 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 1h
Will Natus Vincere qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY Yes 86¢ $6 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $23 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 38¢ $210 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 50¢ $28 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL No 51¢ $19 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $28 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $88 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY No 50¢ $100 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 53¢ $244 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $7 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 61¢ $99 2h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 60¢ $24 2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $98 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 33¢ $84 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,827.03 · official $2,827.06 (match) · 2825 history records