Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:34:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0351…0f28 crypto 88 markets active 6d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$49 (-10%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate64%56W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$40
14 days−$45
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 68% −$40
sports 30% −$12
other 2% −$3
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -26.6% -33.6% 60% 20% -49.8%
≤30d 59 -0.7% -10.2% 76% 42% -16.9%
≤90d 88 -12.7% -21.0% 64% 38% -19.6%
all 88 -12.7% -21.0% 64% 38% -19.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.0% 38% -19.6%
10% -28.6% 23% -27.3%
15% -35.5% 16% -34.3%
20% -41.8% 10% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses56 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)88 / 88
History coverage26d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 88 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $15 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 08 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $6 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 08 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +6%
Heilbronn: Guy Den Ouden vs Emilio Nava Jun 05 $7 +$4 +50%
La Laguna Tenerife vs. Real Madrid Jun 04 $6 +$2 +32%
Barcelona vs. CB Murcia Jun 04 $6 −$6 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Centurion 2: Alexander Donski vs Edward Winter Jun 04 $8 +$3 +41%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $7 +$2 +24%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Zachary Svajda Jun 01 $12 +$2 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $8 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $6 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 190 history records