Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0350…b94b crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$74 (-16%) realized −$72 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day15.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$84
other 41% −$2
sports 2% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +50.9% +36.5% 50% 50% -20.2%
≤30d 12 +50.9% +36.5% 50% 50% -20.2%
≤90d 12 +50.9% +36.5% 50% 50% -20.2%
all 12 +50.9% +36.5% 50% 50% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +36.5% 50% -20.2%
10% +23.5% 42% -27.8%
15% +11.6% 25% -34.8%
20% +0.6% 17% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +51% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -44% → late +146% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$16 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$72
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 16
History coverage2d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day15.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $55 $54 −$2 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $31 +$11 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 23 $18 −$15 -84%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $6 +$17 +276%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 +$36 +711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $47 −$33 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 21 $49 −$33 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $23 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 1h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 BUY Under 26¢ $6 3h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 65¢ $118 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $57 2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $14 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $47 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $23 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 27¢ $13 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $29 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.09 · official $83.09 (match) · 40 history records