Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:20:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
03 0x034c…9d41 other 135 markets active 0h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,100 (-1%) realized −$1,100 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate22%29W / 105L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$765per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$691now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$15
14 days−$24
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$52
other 42% −$55
sports 7% −$765
economics 3% −$2
world 1% +$21
crypto 1% −$247
culture 1% −$1
tech 1% $0
finance 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 26 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 74 -2.8% -12.0% 5% 0% -10.3%
all 134 -4.5% -13.6% 22% 9% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 9% -10.5%
10% -21.9% 9% -19.1%
15% -29.4% 6% -26.9%
20% -36.4% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,168) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$14 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$691
Realized−$1,100
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses29 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage156d
Avg bet$765
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $691 $691 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $677 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $3,254 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $1,836 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $680 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,124 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,435 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $3,121 −$4 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,135 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,843 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $519 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $1,339 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $2,853 −$3 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 02 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $310 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $645 +$2 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $342 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $859 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,290 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,269 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 23 $1,038 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,270 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,369 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,274 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $5,659 −$7 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $2,848 −$4 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 01 $913 +$2 +0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 30 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 29 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 28 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $454 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,466 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $2,064 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,840 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $3,134 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $1,292 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $1,283 −$1 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $1,422 −$1 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,168 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,722 −$2 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $202 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $204 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 10 $201 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $262 6m
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $262 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $412 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $412 2h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $364 3h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $364 6h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $679 22h
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $680 24h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $691 26h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,123 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,124 4d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,433 5d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,435 5d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,384 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,131 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,132 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,133 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,135 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,306 7d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,308 8d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,053 10d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $518 11d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $519 11d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $996 12d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $998 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,471 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,472 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,421 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $690.98 · official $690.98 (match) · 431 history records