Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x034c…5f17
sports · 483 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$787 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$787 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Net worth$18
Realized−$787
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses211 / 268
Est. fees paid−$98
Open positions4
Markets (closed)479 / 483
History coverage94d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 4 History 479 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$40
14 days−$71
30 days−$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Scotland 53¢ 51¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 63¢ 58¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Yes 34¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? Yes 21¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Yes 45¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 +$3 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil Jun 11 $8 −$4 -50%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$11 +108%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +27%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 10? Jun 09 $12 −$10 -80%
T20 Blast: Durham vs Lancashire Jun 09 $7 −$4 -64%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +96%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $33 −$8 -24%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 09 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 −$9 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 -22%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $35 +$1 +3%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $7 $0 -3%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 9? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
Libema Open: Daria Kasatkina vs Robin Montgomery Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $5 +$4 +82%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 08 $10 $0 -2%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Nepal vs Hong Kong, China Jun 08 $31 −$1 -4%
T20 Blast: Gloucestershire vs Worcestershire Jun 08 $30 −$12 -38%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 08 $5 +$2 +44%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Derbyshire Jun 07 $10 +$7 +68%
T20 Blast: Worcestershire vs Glamorgan Jun 07 $9 −$8 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 4? Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 4? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 4? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 5? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 +$9 +93%
ICC Cricket World Cup League Two: Canada vs USA Jun 06 $23 +$11 +47%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $31 +$2 +6%
T20 Blast: Nottinghamshire vs Warwickshire Jun 05 $13 +$7 +57%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $20 +$6 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $10 +$6 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $3 −$3 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 75% −$530
other 17% −$105
weather 4% −$63
crypto 2% −$25
politics 2% −$61
world 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 63¢ $4 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $4 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 9h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 64¢ $9 9h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL West Indies 99¢ $8 13h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 64¢ $3 14h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 25¢ $3 14h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 78¢ $2 15h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 22¢ $2 15h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 39¢ $5 16h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 41¢ $5 16h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 45¢ $3 23h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 53¢ $5 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 24h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 99¢ $14 26h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 71¢ $10 28h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? SELL Yes $1 32h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil SELL Nigeria 56¢ $4 32h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil BUY Nigeria 59¢ $5 33h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Brazil BUY Nigeria 55¢ $3 33h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? BUY Yes $1 33h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Spurs 79¢ $1 37h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 86¢ $1 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -25.0% -32.2% 39% 28% -17.9%
≤30d 182 -10.5% -19.1% 40% 35% -16.3%
≤90d 478 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 38% -16.5%
all 479 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 38% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.1% 38% -16.5%
10% -25.0% 34% -24.5%
15% -32.3% 29% -31.8%
20% -38.9% 24% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.32 · official $18.32 (match) · 1464 history records