Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:21:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
03 0x034b…154e crypto 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$225 (+9%) realized +$225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate80%8W / 2L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$264per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$206
sports 7% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +12.7% +2.0% 80% 60% -1.8%
≤30d 10 +12.7% +2.0% 80% 60% -1.8%
≤90d 10 +12.7% +2.0% 80% 60% -1.8%
all 10 +12.7% +2.0% 80% 60% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.0% 60% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.8% 30% -11.2%
15% -16.7% 10% -19.8%
20% -24.8% 0% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 50% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$58 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.93 per $1 lost it wins $2.93
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses8 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$264
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 30 $407 −$38 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 30 $255 +$80 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 29 $303 +$52 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 29 $527 −$78 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $255 +$90 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 29 $151 +$21 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 29 $184 +$72 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 29 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $192 +$5 +3%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $173 +$18 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $369 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $306 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $334 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $255 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $355 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $203 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $304 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $204 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $145 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $287 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $345 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $153 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $172 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $151 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $255 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $184 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $196 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $197 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $192 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $192 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $173 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records