Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x034b…89eb world 38 markets active 5h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3
politics 36% −$2
sports 9% −$17
other 8% +$5
finance 7% −$4
economics 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -10.7% -19.2% 27% 9% -10.3%
≤30d 14 -8.4% -17.1% 21% 7% -10.1%
≤90d 23 -10.2% -18.7% 26% 4% -10.0%
all 38 -6.3% -15.2% 39% 18% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 18% -10.5%
10% -23.3% 13% -19.0%
15% -30.8% 13% -26.9%
20% -37.5% 11% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage525d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $68 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $20 −$1 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $3 −$1 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $8 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $41 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 +12%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $5 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $156 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $132 −$6 -4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 22 $131 −$1 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $123 −$4 -3%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $118 +$5 +4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $231 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 11 $8 −$1 -12%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? Apr 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $282 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 07 $1 $0 +4%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 24 $2 $0 +1%
Will another candidate win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? May 05 $3 −$3 -88%
Solana above $190 on February 14? Mar 05 $3 +$2 +64%
Colgate vs. Boston Univ. Mar 05 $11 −$11 -100%
NJIT vs. New Hampshire Feb 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will G2 Esports win the VCT 2025 Americas Kickoff? Feb 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Jenkins vs. Santos Feb 14 $7 +$3 +52%
Florida A&M vs. Prairie View A&M Feb 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the January unemployment rate be 4.3% or higher? Feb 08 $12 +$3 +22%
Will Brian Robinson Jr. score a touchdown? Feb 02 $2 +$5 +194%
Will the Chiefs and Texans combine for 48 or more points? Feb 02 $9 +$5 +49%
Iggy Azalea vs. Profits Jan 18 $8 $0 -1%
Will the Ravens beat the Steelers by 10 or more points? Jan 12 $3 +$2 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $26 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $16 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $17 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $25 5h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 31h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $8 42h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $23 42h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 44h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 44h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $28 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $28 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $6 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $14 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $13 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $25 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $23 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 81¢ $17 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $38 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 45¢ $8 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.80 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records