Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x034a…f014 crypto 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$136 (-12%) realized −$136 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%10W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 73% +$159
other 27% −$151
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +8.7% -1.6% 67% 33% -8.6%
≤30d 15 +8.7% -1.6% 67% 33% -8.6%
≤90d 15 +8.7% -1.6% 67% 33% -8.6%
all 15 +8.7% -1.6% 67% 33% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 33% -8.6%
10% -11.1% 20% -17.3%
15% -19.7% 13% -25.3%
20% -27.5% 13% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 84% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$56 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$136
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses10 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage2d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $53 +$241 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 −$151 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $93 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $10 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $53 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 19h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $150 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $93 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 75¢ $146 40h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $150 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records