Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x034a…9ddc sports 63 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$606 (-4%) realized −$605 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate61%38W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$226per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$320
7 days+$777
14 days+$777
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% +$28
sports 30% −$358
world 26% −$387
economics 4% +$19
crypto 3% +$113
culture 3% −$381
finance 2% +$45
politics 1% +$71
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +23.9% +12.1% 79% 74% +10.4%
≤30d 34 -0.9% -10.3% 65% 62% -7.5%
≤90d 62 -14.6% -22.7% 61% 52% -14.3%
all 62 -14.6% -22.7% 61% 52% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 52% -14.3%
10% -30.1% 39% -22.5%
15% -36.9% 27% -30.0%
20% -43.1% 15% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$151 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized−$605
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses38 / 24
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage78d
Avg bet$226
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $203 +$142 +70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $102 +$111 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $202 +$97 +48%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 21 $200 +$73 +37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $202 +$88 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $152 −$152 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $152 −$152 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $252 +$114 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $132 +$85 +65%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $301 +$44 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $81 +$59 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $254 −$175 -69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $302 +$78 +26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $302 +$98 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $70 +$7 +10%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$188 +93%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $170 +$163 +96%
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Andrey Rublev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $72 −$70 -97%
Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit May 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Valorant: BESTIA vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular S May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
Valorant: BESTIA vs ShindeN - Map 2 Winner May 27 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 27 $381 −$381 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $202 +$90 +45%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $51 +$18 +34%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - CIS LAN Champions May 27 $93 +$66 +71%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 27 $71 +$35 +50%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs ALGO Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ May 27 $320 +$47 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $790 −$395 -50%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A May 26 $394 +$177 +45%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 25 $429 +$113 +26%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 218.5 May 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs NIP (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 20 $146 −$145 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $301 −$301 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Liquid (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 20 $106 +$40 +38%
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad lis May 19 $773 +$116 +15%
Will Bulgaria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $363 +$63 +17%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $305 +$75 +25%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $685 +$90 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 13 $559 +$126 +23%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 06 $539 +$19 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $80 −$80 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 13 $282 −$282 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 3m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 28¢ $153 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $102 4h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $202 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $202 19h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $152 20h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 93¢ $100 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $152 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 62¢ $101 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY FURIA 60¢ $132 32h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 58¢ $152 34h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 57¢ $81 45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $301 45h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 74¢ $150 46h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $302 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $46 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 56¢ $101 47h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 47¢ $56 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 53¢ $79 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $78 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 89¢ $70 2d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $51 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 75¢ $302 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $202 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 3d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 5d
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 23d
Will Moise Kouame win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes $0 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.51 · official $198.51 (match) · 187 history records