Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
03 0x0343…f2dc other 12 markets active 4h ago coverage 64d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13,586 (+16%) realized +$11,090 · open +$2,496
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$7,008per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$45,930now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$45
30 days+$8,209
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2,443
sports 14% +$8,254
politics 1% −$45
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 +16.8% +5.6% 50% 25% +45.2%
≤90d 7 +6.8% -3.4% 29% 14% +41.9%
all 7 +6.8% -3.4% 29% 14% +41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 14% +41.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 14% +28.3%
15% -21.0% 14% +15.9%
20% -28.8% 14% +4.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,127 vs −$20 · ×208.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×83.24 per $1 lost it wins $83.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$45,930
Realized+$11,090
Unrealized+$2,496
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage64d
Avg bet$7,008
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $16,102 $18,297 +$2,196 (+14%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 84¢ $14,556 $15,281 +$724 (+5%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 74¢ $11,755 $11,275 −$480 (-4%)
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 77¢ $572 $620 +$48 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $449 $457 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,826 −$45 -2%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $11,746 +$8,254 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 26 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May? May 26 $2 $0 +9%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $627 −$45 -7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $70 −$3 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $68 −$5 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $1,831 3h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $4,446 4h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $22,808 4h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 78¢ $10,003 27h
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $6,993 7d
Will Germany reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $577 8d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $88 10d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $2,414 10d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $700 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $803 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,499 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $2 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,779 11d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 80¢ $1,781 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $152 11d
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $364 11d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $4 13d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 13d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 81¢ $1,622 13d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $63 14d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 84¢ $135 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $7,644 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $2,403 14d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $6,942 14d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $5 15d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $30 17d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 89¢ $262 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $11,746 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,929.81 · official $45,929.81 (match) · 127 history records