Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:14:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0342…a01c crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 536d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate79%44W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$5
crypto 18% +$1
politics 3% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 56 -1.6% -11.0% 79% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

536d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses44 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage536d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $68 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 05 $19 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? May 05 $51 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $25 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in December? Jan 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? Dec 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $270 in October? Nov 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? Oct 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? Sep 02 $44 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 03 $25 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $50 $0 +1%
Trump x Ukraine mineral deal signed before May? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 150% and 200% on April 3 May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $3 $0 +1%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.09 in April? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? May 03 $4 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $5 $0 +1%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Stačilo! win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary elect Apr 15 $12 $0 -0%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year? Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will HNP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 11 $19 $0 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Calgary Flames win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 16 $2,952 −$6 -0%
Will Trump post 140-159 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 05 $11 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 by February 28 2025? Mar 05 $16 $0 +2%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Feb 21 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $68 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $68 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $19 61d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in April? BUY No 99¢ $51 63d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $9 91d
Will XRP reach $2.40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $17 92d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 93d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $25 121d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $9 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? BUY No 100¢ $62 150d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $22 181d
Will Solana reach $200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $45 183d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $50 212d
Will Solana reach $270 in October? BUY No 100¢ $20 243d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $43 243d
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $15 272d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in September? BUY No 100¢ $19 273d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $32 274d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 301d
Will Google have the top AI model on August 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 301d
Will Solana dip to $130 in August? BUY No 100¢ $44 303d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 333d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $40 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $26 363d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $24 366d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 393d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 395d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 395d
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? BUY No 100¢ $13 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.23 · official $68.23 (match) · 118 history records