Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0341…0068 crypto 59 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$80 (-7%) realized −$92 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate35%18W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$44
14 days−$44
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$114
sports 8% +$38
other 7% −$27
world 1% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -46.2% -51.3% 35% 30% -18.9%
≤30d 23 -46.2% -51.3% 35% 30% -18.9%
≤90d 52 -33.4% -39.8% 35% 33% -21.1%
all 52 -33.4% -39.8% 35% 33% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.8% 33% -21.1%
10% -45.5% 31% -28.6%
15% -50.8% 29% -35.5%
20% -55.6% 21% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses18 / 34
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 59
History coverage108d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 51¢ 99¢ $12 $24 +$12 (+96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 20 $31 −$18 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $27 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $34 −$4 -11%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $13 +$12 +93%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $89 +$28 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06 Jun 16 $32 +$14 +43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -59%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$13 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Apr 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Apr 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 20 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Apr 20 $4 +$3 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Apr 20 $6 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Apr 20 $3 +$3 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 20 $29 −$17 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Apr 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 20 $100 −$78 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 20 $80 +$38 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 20 $24 +$13 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 20 $69 −$69 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Apr 20 $51 −$20 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 20 $57 +$46 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 20 $38 +$29 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 20 $10 +$32 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 20 $11 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Apr 20 $22 +$9 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 51¢ $12 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $31 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end BUY 2¢ $5 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? AN BUY 31¢ $30 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Germany win on 2026-06 BUY 18¢ $26 10h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Belgium vs. IR Iran BUY 5¢ $5 18h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 18h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 8¢ $1 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 47¢ $12 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 50¢ $22 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $15 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $117 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $89 4d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 40¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.57 · official $87.57 · 121 history records