Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T01:38:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0341…9294 sports 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 440d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$291 (+6%) realized +$97 · open +$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%56W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$720now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$667
7 days+$182
14 days+$182
30 days+$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% +$687
other 37% −$36
politics 6% −$201
world 1% −$36
crypto 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 173 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 31% -5.3%
≤30d 173 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 31% -5.3%
≤90d 173 -2.2% -11.5% 32% 31% -5.3%
all 174 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 32% -4.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 32% -4.4%
10% -19.3% 32% -13.5%
15% -27.1% 31% -21.9%
20% -34.3% 29% -29.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$19 · ×2.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

440d coverage
Net worth$720
Realized+$97
Unrealized+$194
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses56 / 118
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions18
Markets (closed)174 / 195
History coverage440d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 174 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Over 57¢ 72¢ $117 $149 +$32 (+27%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 100¢ $46 $102 +$56 (+122%)
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists Yes 35¢ 61¢ $36 $63 +$27 (+74%)
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Yes 16¢ 39¢ $25 $61 +$36 (+144%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 37¢ 50¢ $38 $52 +$14 (+36%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $29 $37 +$8 (+29%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Over 29¢ 36¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+22%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+37%)
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists Yes 12¢ 20¢ $19 $32 +$13 (+67%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Over 27¢ 28¢ $28 $30 +$2 (+6%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Netherlands reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+4%)
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+3%)
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 41¢ $19 $14 −$5 (-26%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Over 13¢ 12¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 Over 6¢ 4¢ $19 $13 −$6 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $13 +$39 +291%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $32 +$72 +226%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $22 +$83 +388%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 17 $38 +$65 +172%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $61 +$41 +67%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $21 +$40 +188%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $56 +$48 +86%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Spread: Norway (-3.5) Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 16 $28 −$27 -98%
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals Jun 16 $22 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 +$101 +980%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$45 +442%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Senegal to score first vs. France? Jun 16 $16 −$8 -49%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $21 −$11 -52%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Michael Olise: 2+ goals Jun 16 $11 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 +$12 +77%
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $15 +$4 +28%
Will Japan reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -8%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $103 −$6 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $71 −$71 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 2+ assists BUY Yes 12¢ $20 53m
Lionel Messi: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $37 53m
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 16¢ $26 54m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $47 54m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 6¢ $20 55m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 13¢ $14 55m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $31 55m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 27¢ $29 56m
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $119 57m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $43 57m
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $30 58m
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $25 58m
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 37¢ $39 59m
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 1¢ $4 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 2¢ $5 4h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 55¢ $7 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 4¢ $4 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 10¢ $11 4h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $12 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 20¢ $22 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 4h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 4h
Spread: Norway (-3.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $19 4h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 36¢ $38 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $61 4h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 4h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 13¢ $28 4h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $32 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 63¢ $32 4h
Alexander Sørloth: 1+ goals BUY Yes 43¢ $22 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.07 · official $758.96 · 375 history records