Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0341…a679 sports 742 markets active 2h ago coverage 219d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$348 (+0%) realized +$342 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%337W / 404L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$386est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$193
7 days+$635
14 days+$635
30 days+$635
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$3,656
other 3% +$3,741
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 60% +3.9%
≤30d 5 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 60% +3.9%
≤90d 271 -71.1% -73.9% 13% 13% -74.5%
all 741 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 45% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 45% -9.5%
10% -17.9% 43% -18.2%
15% -25.8% 38% -26.1%
20% -33.1% 33% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +59% → late -58% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$348 vs −$290 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

219d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized+$342
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses337 / 404
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$386
Open positions1
Markets (closed)741 / 742
History coverage219d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 741 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 48¢ $57 $63 +$6 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 27 $194 −$193 -99%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 26 $181 +$34 +19%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 26 $3,468 +$488 +14%
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) Jun 24 $292 +$433 +148%
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 23 $131 −$128 -98%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 15 $200 −$78 -39%
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $109 +$158 +145%
Valorant: EVOPLAY vs Bitfix Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group B Apr 13 $150 +$151 +101%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay (BO3) - Exort Series Apr 13 $174 +$53 +30%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $500 +$239 +48%
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Apr 13 $503 −$62 -12%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 13 $87 +$44 +50%
Jazz vs. Lakers Apr 13 $50 −$49 -97%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? Apr 12 $234 −$229 -98%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 12 $92 −$90 -98%
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Gro Apr 12 $656 −$85 -13%
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs Inner Circle (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Apr 12 $234 −$69 -29%
Dota 2: Ivory vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Apr 12 $200 −$196 -98%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 12 $753 +$641 +85%
Valorant: Caldya Esport vs F9 EICAR - Map 1 Winner Apr 11 $125 −$21 -16%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Apr 11 $28 +$30 +107%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FUT Esports (BO5) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs Apr 11 $502 −$494 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Apr 11 $523 +$646 +124%
Valorant: NAVI Junior vs Lost Puppies - Map 2 Winner Apr 11 $126 −$124 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - Elisa Open Suomi Playoffs Apr 11 $95 −$94 -98%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Rey vs Team Flash (BO3) - MPL Malaysia Apr 11 $45 −$44 -98%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Ølgod Efterskole (BO3) - Parken Challenger Apr 11 $108 −$106 -98%
LoL: Esprit Shōnen vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 11 $464 +$166 +36%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $822 +$864 +105%
Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 2? Apr 10 $563 −$554 -98%
LoL: Citadel Gaming vs Blue Otter (BO3) - North American Challengers L Apr 10 $174 −$172 -99%
Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - European Pro League Apr 09 $163 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Apr 09 $82 +$177 +216%
76ers vs. Rockets Apr 09 $243 −$238 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $737 +$454 +62%
Valorant: Wadadaa vs Maui Wowie (BO3) - VCT Game Changers North Americ Apr 09 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Last Bullet vs FengDa Gaming (BO3) Apr 09 $160 −$160 -100%
LoL: French Flair vs Lille Esport (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Grou Apr 09 $230 −$230 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs GAM Esports (BO3) - LCP Regular Season Apr 09 $169 −$169 -100%
Counter-Strike: MINLATE vs ASTRAL (BO1) Apr 09 $168 −$168 -100%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Vitality (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Playoffs Apr 09 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: LEO vs DMG Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Apr 09 $176 −$176 -100%
Beijing Ducks vs. Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: Misa Esports vs French Flair (BO3) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Apr 09 $196 −$196 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Virtus.pro (BO3) Apr 09 $197 −$197 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Apr 09 $184 −$184 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st D Apr 09 $61 −$61 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Weibo Gaming vs Fury (BO3) - Asia-Pacific League Ki Apr 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: Gen.G Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Al Apr 09 $196 −$196 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $197 −$197 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $58 2h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 79¢ $194 33h
Paraguay vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 84¢ $181 2d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 88¢ $17 3d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 88¢ $1,154 3d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 87¢ $1,154 3d
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Australia 87¢ $1,143 3d
Valorant: Riddle vs AGELITE (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY AGELITE 29¢ $131 4d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 39¢ $1 4d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 42¢ $121 4d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 38¢ $62 4d
Map Handicap: SHIM (-1.5) vs Atrix Esports (+1.5) BUY Atrix Esports 38¢ $108 4d
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha SELL Natus Vincere 42¢ $122 73d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior - Map 1 Winner SELL Pixel Lumina 100¢ $267 75d
Valorant: EVOPLAY vs Bitfix Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group B SELL Bitfix Gaming 100¢ $301 75d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay (BO3) - Exort Series SELL NeverPlay 50¢ $227 75d
Valorant: Pixel Lumina vs NAVI Junior - Map 1 Winner BUY Pixel Lumina 40¢ $109 76d
Valorant: EVOPLAY vs Bitfix Gaming (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Group B BUY Bitfix Gaming 49¢ $150 76d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay (BO3) - Exort Series BUY NeverPlay 31¢ $74 76d
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire Academy vs NeverPlay (BO3) - Exort Series BUY NeverPlay 45¢ $100 76d
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Cloud Dawning 61¢ $3 76d
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Cloud Dawning 56¢ $300 76d
Dota 2: Cloud Dawning vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea BUY Cloud Dawning 56¢ $200 76d
Jazz vs. Lakers BUY Jazz 10¢ $50 76d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 32¢ $5 76d
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 1? BUY Over 32¢ $229 76d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Hawks 29¢ $4 76d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Hawks 27¢ $88 76d
Valorant: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Gro SELL FOKUS 56¢ $571 76d
Dota 2: Ivory vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia BUY Yangon Galacticos 37¢ $100 77d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.97 · official $62.97 (match) · 2037 history records