Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

03 0x0341…97c8 sports 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 581d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$69 (-12%) realized −$69 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip

Net edge-16%after slip

Net WR52%break-even

Win rate52%13W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$38

7 days+$43

14 days+$43

30 days+$43

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +52%

net ROI/market (all)-16.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	+24.9%	+13.0%	75%	75%	+31.4%
≤30d	8	+24.9%	+13.0%	75%	75%	+31.4%
≤90d	8	+24.9%	+13.0%	75%	75%	+31.4%
all	25	-7.7%	-16.5%	52%	52%	-18.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-16.5%	52%	-18.8%
10%	-24.5%	48%	-26.5%
15%	-31.8%	40%	-33.6%
20%	-38.4%	32%	-40.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +45% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -8% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +9% → late -23% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$20 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.76 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

581d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$69

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses13 / 12

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions0

Markets (closed)25 / 25

History coverage581d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 25 Trades

no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5	Jun 20	$10	+$6	+57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$20	+$14	+67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$16	+$18	+109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$10	+$6	+56%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$11	−$11	-99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$15	+$6	+40%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$2	−$2	-97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	+$7	+70%
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-05?	Sep 05	$17	−$17	-100%
Mets vs. Tigers	Sep 01	$24	−$24	-100%
Rays vs. Angels	Aug 06	$53	−$53	-100%
Orioles vs. Phillies	Aug 06	$38	−$38	-100%
Cardinals vs. Dodgers	Aug 06	$27	−$27	-100%
White Sox vs. Mariners	Aug 06	$75	+$24	+32%
Reds vs. Cubs	Aug 06	$30	−$29	-98%
Guardians vs. Mets	Aug 06	$40	+$17	+41%
Orioles vs. Phillies	Aug 06	$50	+$40	+80%
Brewers vs. Braves	Aug 05	$23	+$4	+19%
Orioles vs. Phillies	Aug 04	$14	−$5	-33%
Giants vs. Pirates	Aug 04	$13	−$13	-100%
White Sox vs. Angels	Aug 03	$8	+$5	+65%
Cardinals vs. Padres	Aug 03	$13	+$5	+35%
Will Spirit win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?	Aug 03	$12	+$33	+267%
Will Natus Vincere win the IEM Cologne 2025 tournament?	Aug 02	$7	−$7	-100%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?	Nov 15	$14	−$14	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$16	39m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5	BUY Over	63¢	$10	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	100¢	$34	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	59¢	$20	4h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	47¢	$16	28h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$16	29h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$11	37h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$15	2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$2	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$17	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	2d
Will Ukraine win on 2025-09-05?	BUY Yes	11¢	$17	287d
Mets vs. Tigers	BUY Tigers	60¢	$24	291d
Rays vs. Angels	BUY Angels	49¢	$53	317d
Orioles vs. Phillies	BUY Phillies	17¢	$13	317d
Orioles vs. Phillies	BUY Phillies	63¢	$25	317d
White Sox vs. Mariners	SELL Mariners	87¢	$99	317d
Reds vs. Cubs	SELL Cubs	1¢	$1	317d
White Sox vs. Mariners	BUY Mariners	66¢	$75	317d
Reds vs. Cubs	BUY Cubs	58¢	$30	318d
Guardians vs. Mets	SELL Guardians	99¢	$57	318d
Guardians vs. Mets	BUY Guardians	70¢	$40	318d
Orioles vs. Phillies	SELL Phillies	99¢	$90	318d
Orioles vs. Phillies	BUY Phillies	55¢	$50	318d
Cardinals vs. Dodgers	BUY Dodgers	50¢	$27	318d
Brewers vs. Braves	SELL Brewers	99¢	$27	319d
Brewers vs. Braves	BUY Brewers	83¢	$23	319d
Orioles vs. Phillies	SELL Orioles	39¢	$9	319d
Giants vs. Pirates	BUY Giants	66¢	$13	319d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records