Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x033e…1bb9 sports 755 markets active 5d ago coverage 120d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 120d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,424 (+2%) realized +$4,424 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate77%583W / 172L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$239per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$621est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$5,531
other 9% −$265
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -8.1% -16.9% 82% 15% -24.9%
≤30d 246 +30.1% +17.7% 78% 30% -3.5%
≤90d 265 +27.8% +15.7% 77% 30% -4.3%
all 755 +7.3% -2.9% 77% 24% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 24% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -12.2% 18% -21.2%
15% -20.7% 14% -28.9%
20% -28.5% 12% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$242 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4,424
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses583 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$621
Open positions0
Markets (closed)755 / 755
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$239
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 755 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 1: Any Player Rampage? Jun 14 $33 +$33 +100%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Noir Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 $0 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $565 −$558 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $538 −$419 -78%
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $12 $0 +1%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $409 −$408 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $810 +$41 +5%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $703 −$104 -15%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $560 +$340 +61%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $289 −$287 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $363 +$200 +55%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$5 -49%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $731 −$720 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $257 −$254 -99%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $254 −$254 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $382 −$382 -100%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Nick Hardt Jun 12 $632 +$77 +12%
Kicker vs. Hardt: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Kicker vs. Hardt: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Kicker vs. Hardt: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Kicker vs. Hardt: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $14 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Hardt (-1.5) vs Kicker (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Nicolas Kicker vs. Nick Hardt: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $72 −$72 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Natus Vincere (+6.5) Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-9.5) vs Natus Vincere (+9.5) Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Bronzetti vs. Grabher: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Bronzetti vs. Grabher: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $190 +$10 +5%
Bronzetti vs. Grabher: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $100 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-6.5) vs Natus Vincere (+6.5) Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-15.5) vs Natus Vincere (+15.5) Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 11 $54 +$1 +2%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 11 $179 +$25 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,658 +$175 +11%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $526 −$204 -39%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $785 −$321 -41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $424 +$12 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $835 +$65 +8%
Set Handicap: Andreescu (-1.5) vs Longo (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Longo vs Andreescu Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
Set 1 Winner: Longo vs Andreescu Jun 11 $20 $0 +1%
ITF Curtea de Arges: Nicolas Garcia Longo vs Stefan Adrian Andreescu Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $219 +$81 +37%
ITF Nice: Mathilde Lollia vs Maria Sara Popa Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 57¢ $119 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 17¢ $119 5d
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz BUY Mattia Bellucci 59¢ $446 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 51¢ $103 5d
Jovic vs. Anisimova: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 99¢ $12 5d
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova BUY Amanda Anisimova 51¢ $306 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 91¢ $851 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $201 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $300 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $15 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $3 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 75¢ $19 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 87¢ $135 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $61 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $74 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $91 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 86¢ $450 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $210 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $17 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $65 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $91 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 87¢ $8 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 33¢ $103 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 33¢ $2 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 33¢ $40 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 33¢ $3 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 45¢ $137 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 38¢ $141 5d
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 38¢ $11 5d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 24¢ $49 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records