Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:53:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x033e…2510
other · 121 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$96 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$99 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$20
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses8 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage108d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 120 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Thunder vs. Celtics Thunder 56¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Clippers 67¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$26 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Bucks Cavaliers 61¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Heat Heat 40¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Jazz vs. Bucks Jazz 22¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Thunder Warriors 14¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
76ers vs. Hawks 76ers 30¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Pistons Pistons 60¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
76ers vs. Heat 76ers 56¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Mavericks 48¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Spurs Bulls 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Knicks Knicks 40¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $29 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $184 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $137 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $138 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $263 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 23 $164 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $343 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $188 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $154 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $184 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $364 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $130 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $191 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $340 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $186 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $489 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $166 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $322 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 07 $137 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 06 $173 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $139 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $318 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $179 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $398 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $156 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $167 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $520 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $164 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $158 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $559 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $152 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $144 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $172 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $329 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $328 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $159 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $145 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $170 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $316 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $166 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 53% −$12
politics 33% −$10
sports 7% −$75
world 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 6h
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $29 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $16 3d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $16 3d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 8d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $137 19d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $137 19d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $138 20d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $138 20d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $128 20d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $128 21d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $164 21d
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $164 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $174 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $174 22d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $135 22d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $135 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $188 23d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $188 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $166 25d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $166 26d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $154 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 110 -4.6% -13.7% 5% 4% -9.9%
all 120 -6.0% -14.9% 7% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 6% -9.9%
10% -23.1% 5% -18.5%
15% -30.5% 4% -26.4%
20% -37.3% 3% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.99 · official $19.99 (match) · 324 history records