Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T08:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x033d…af05 other 309 markets active 10d ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 177d only
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$64,710 (+20%) realized +$64,220 · open +$490
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate76%231W / 71L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,031per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$4,669now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$96
7 days+$43
14 days+$92
30 days+$927
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$29,563
world 23% −$4,019
culture 16% +$6,163
politics 11% +$737
finance 2% −$342
crypto 2% +$102
tech 1% +$200
sports 1% −$800
economics 0% +$38
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +13.1% +2.3% 100% 100% +2.3%
≤30d 8 +12.9% +2.2% 88% 88% +4.2%
≤90d 86 +67.5% +51.6% 69% 42% -13.3%
all 302 +50.3% +36.0% 76% 29% +1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.0% 29% +1.4%
10% ← realistic here +23.0% 13% -8.3%
15% +11.1% 9% -17.2%
20% +0.2% 8% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$1,061) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +64% → late +37% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$211 vs −$247 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$4,669
Realized+$64,220
Unrealized+$490
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses231 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions13
Markets (closed)302 / 309
History coverage178d ⚠
Avg bet$1,031
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 302 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 29 $0 −$96 -40197%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $1,061 +$139 +13%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 19 $380 $0 -0%
Will Derek Dooley be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $381 +$49 +13%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 12 $2,217 +$344 +16%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 09 $75 +$12 +16%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 61m? Jun 01 $450 +$50 +11%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 01 $1,719 +$367 +21%
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Jun 01 $471 +$62 +13%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 23 $454 −$44 -10%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 21 $9,133 +$1,260 +14%
Will Annie January (Starlight) die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $245 +$50 +20%
Will Kimiko Miyashiro die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $54 +$32 +59%
Will Ryan Butcher die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $126 +$8 +6%
Will Hughie Campbell die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $271 +$44 +16%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $425 +$75 +18%
Will Romania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $413 +$87 +21%
Will United Kingdom be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $930 +$41 +4%
Will Lithuania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $471 +$29 +6%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $440 +$60 +14%
Will Italy be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $344 −$49 -14%
Will Greece be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $860 +$35 +4%
Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $757 +$41 +5%
Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 15 $1,266 −$171 -14%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $429 −$275 -64%
Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 14 $430 +$70 +16%
Will Frenchie die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 13 $1,804 +$333 +18%
Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 11 $140 −$10 -7%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $2,128 −$2,083 -98%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 08 $500 +$69 +14%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30? May 08 $270 −$7 -2%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 07 $430 +$65 +15%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 05 $433 −$8 -2%
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? May 03 $2,243 +$268 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $880 −$57 -6%
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $19 +$2 +13%
Will Trump say "Palestine" in April? May 01 $215 +$132 +62%
Will JB Bickerstaff win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 01 $652 −$558 -86%
Fed rate cut by April 2026 meeting? Apr 29 $124 +$9 +7%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? Apr 29 $756 −$18 -2%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 29 $400 −$53 -13%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 27 $1,710 +$112 +6%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $592 −$185 -31%
Will Fidesz-KDNP win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parl Apr 24 $1,415 +$63 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Apr 19 $1,157 −$127 -11%
Will Trump say "Witch" this week? (April 12) Apr 17 $15 +$19 +133%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" this week? (April 12) Apr 17 $398 +$100 +25%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March? Apr 13 $834 −$49 -6%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $1,665 +$64 +4%
Will Leavitt say "President" 50+ times during the next White House pre Apr 13 $93 +$22 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m SELL No 90¢ $380 9d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $706 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $14 11d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $370 11d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $93 11d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 95¢ $12 11d
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $296 11d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 89¢ $1 12d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 89¢ $4 12d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 89¢ $16 12d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 89¢ $89 12d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY No 90¢ $270 12d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $531 12d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 80¢ $1,190 16d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL No 81¢ $2,145 16d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 85¢ $67 16d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 85¢ $28 16d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 85¢ $742 16d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 85¢ $17 16d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 88¢ $531 17d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 77¢ $621 18d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 72¢ $594 18d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 75¢ $494 19d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest SELL No 70¢ $416 20d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 45¢ $184 21d
Will "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY Yes 40¢ $204 21d
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest BUY No 51¢ $324 22d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 26d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 27d
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? BUY Yes 71¢ $29 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,668.62 · official $4,664.23 (match) · 3500 history records