Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:23:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
03 0x0338…4f11 sports 1575 markets active 0h ago coverage 270d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$370 (+1%) realized +$377 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%621W / 915L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$132est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$119
7 days+$637
14 days+$1,279
30 days+$1,513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$822
other 17% +$350
world 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +16.3% +5.2% 53% 53% +20.1%
≤30d 204 +15.9% +4.9% 49% 49% +16.9%
≤90d 413 +4.5% -5.4% 44% 43% +10.1%
all 1536 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 40% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 40% -5.7%
10% -18.5% 39% -14.7%
15% -26.4% 38% -23.0%
20% -33.6% 37% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$13 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

270d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses621 / 915
Est. fees paid−$132
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1536 / 1575
History coverage270d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1536 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Over 44¢ 81¢ $26 $49 +$22 (+85%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Yes $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B OG 34¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner FOKUS 45¢ $14 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$4 -94%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 23 $16 −$5 -30%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic Jun 23 $103 +$71 +68%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $18 +$22 +127%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey Jun 23 $24 +$31 +127%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $25 +$23 +88%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $5 −$4 -79%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Brandon Nakashima vs Jack Draper Jun 22 $33 −$3 -9%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $20 −$3 -12%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) Jun 21 $38 +$22 +58%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $19 +$21 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $113 +$87 +77%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $67 +$53 +79%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $32 +$28 +89%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $116 +$150 +129%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $56 −$31 -55%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $46 −$13 -29%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $10 +$15 +156%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $104 −$43 -41%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $56 +$49 +87%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -98%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $45 +$39 +85%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $62 +$125 +203%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $35 +$29 +84%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $100 −$98 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tatjana Maria Jun 19 $48 −$47 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $8 −$1 -10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $13 +$17 +129%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $149 +$115 +78%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $67 −$56 -83%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $103 −$4 -3%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $28 +$20 +72%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $43 +$16 +37%
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $146 +$42 +29%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $28 +$13 +46%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $23 +$32 +137%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $38 +$32 +82%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $75 −$41 -54%
Grass Court Championships: Elise Mertens vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $17 +$13 +79%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$1 -18%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$22 +93%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $17 +$23 +138%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $39 −$23 -60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $3 7m
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 7m
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 8m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 40¢ $6 52m
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes $0 54m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 31¢ $9 56m
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci SELL Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $11 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $22 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 100¢ $150 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 39¢ $11 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 39¢ $1 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 39¢ $1 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Mattia Bellucci BUY Mattia Bellucci 39¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 45¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL OG 27¢ $11 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 54¢ $5 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 54¢ $1 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 22¢ $0 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery BUY Roman Andres Burruchaga 23¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY OG 53¢ $21 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 50¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner SELL 9INE 100¢ $40 4h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 45¢ $2 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic BUY Daniel Altmaier 50¢ $13 5h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE - Map 2 Winner BUY 9INE 43¢ $15 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey SELL Giles Hussey 98¢ $55 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Matteo Arnaldi vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 45¢ $9 6h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Aleksandar Kovacevic SELL Daniel Altmaier 51¢ $9 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.63 · official $60.64 (match) · 3314 history records