trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 80¢ | 90¢ | $73,938 | $84,132 | +$10,194 (+14%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | No | 85¢ | 94¢ | $4,390 | $4,883 | +$493 (+11%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | 69¢ | 100¢ | $413 | $600 | +$186 (+45%) |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 67¢ | 0¢ | $49,034 | $0 | −$49,034 (-100%) |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | No | 7¢ | 0¢ | $7,624 | $0 | −$7,624 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Jun 02 | $408 | +$192 | +47% |
| Over $4M committed to the Printr public sale? | Jun 02 | $355 | −$148 | -42% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 01 | $53,285 | −$50,316 | -94% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | May 29 | $19,825 | +$733 | +4% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 06 | $7,625 | −$7,624 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 4 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 50% | 25% | -72.2% |
| ≤90d | 4 | -22.8% | -30.1% | 50% | 25% | -72.2% |
| all | 5 | -38.2% | -44.1% | 40% | 20% | -75.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -44.1% | 20% | -75.0% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -49.5% | 20% | -77.4% |
| 15% | -54.3% | 20% | -79.6% |
| 20% | -58.8% | 0% | -81.6% |