Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:09:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
03 0x0335…6eca weather 860 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 89d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,592 (+2%) realized +$6,609 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate97%834W / 25L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$324per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$26
14 days+$267
30 days+$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$4,541
sports 0% −$105
other 0% −$72
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -4.3% -13.4% 93% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 343 -0.6% -10.0% 96% 1% -9.2%
≤90d 859 +3.7% -6.2% 97% 4% -8.2%
all 859 +3.7% -6.2% 97% 4% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.2% 4% -8.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.2% 2% -17.0%
15% -23.4% 1% -25.0%
20% -30.9% 1% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$166 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$6,609
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses834 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)859 / 860
History coverage90d ⚠
Avg bet$324
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 859 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $25 $7 −$17 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $277 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $112 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $254 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $123 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $193 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 16? Jun 16 $438 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 15? Jun 15 $492 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $197 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $390 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $492 +$5 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 14 $410 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $329 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 14? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $84 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $220 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 14? Jun 14 $23 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $492 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $492 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $455 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $251 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $78 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $103 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $306 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $162 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $280 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $104 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $157 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $113 10h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $112 10h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $120 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 13h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $40 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $60 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $5 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $52 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $496 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $27 14h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $257 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $14 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $126 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $15 14h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $8 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.50 · official $7.16 (match) · 3500 history records