Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:53:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0335…ae81 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$437 (+8%) realized +$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate34%27W / 53L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$158
7 days+$158
14 days+$158
30 days+$158
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$598
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +8.7% -1.6% 45% 32% +7.3%
≤30d 22 +8.7% -1.6% 45% 32% +7.3%
≤90d 22 +8.7% -1.6% 45% 32% +7.3%
all 80 -8.9% -17.6% 34% 28% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 28% +2.9%
10% -25.5% 20% -6.9%
15% -32.7% 18% -15.9%
20% -39.3% 11% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$35 · ×2.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses27 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage136d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $58 +$216 +373%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $113 +$44 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $272 −$43 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$23 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $56 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $37 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$3 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$20 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $31 +$13 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$24 +446%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $62 −$28 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Mar 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Mar 19 $12 −$5 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 19 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Mar 19 $18 +$8 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Mar 19 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Mar 19 $13 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Feb 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Feb 20 $25 −$5 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Feb 20 $34 +$14 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Feb 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 20 $39 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Feb 20 $31 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 16 $23 −$23 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Feb 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Feb 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 11 $2 +$2 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 9? Feb 09 $19 −$13 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Feb 09 $132 −$130 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Feb 08 $142 −$24 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 08 $57 −$3 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 9? Feb 08 $168 +$34 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Feb 08 $195 −$121 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Feb 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Feb 08 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 08 $162 −$161 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 8? Feb 08 $33 +$21 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $152 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $103 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $54 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 472 history records