Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:40:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
03 0x032e…6a24 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 140d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this
Total PnL +$2,517 (+28%) realized +$2,513 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,525
7 days+$2,195
14 days+$2,462
30 days+$2,462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$969
other 42% +$1,365
crypto 5% +$322
world 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+26.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +45.1% +31.3% 59% 59% +22.2%
≤30d 45 +42.7% +29.1% 58% 58% +18.4%
≤90d 45 +42.7% +29.1% 58% 58% +18.4%
all 46 +39.6% +26.3% 57% 57% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.3% 57% +18.3%
10% +14.2% 57% +7.0%
15% +3.2% 57% -3.4%
20% -7.0% 54% -12.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$158 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized+$2,513
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage140d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 38¢ 40¢ $200 $208 +$8 (+4%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 54¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $204 +$337 +165%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $204 +$596 +291%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $203 +$222 +109%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$148 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $202 +$126 +62%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $202 +$115 +57%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 18 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$273 +134%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $204 +$441 +216%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 +$402 +197%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $204 +$309 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$73 +712%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $203 +$262 +129%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$189 +93%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $203 +$175 +86%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$168 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 −$100 -33%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 −$200 -99%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $203 +$168 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$110 +55%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $201 −$200 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $152 +$160 +105%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $77 +$264 +344%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $153 +$253 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $151 +$63 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$1 -8%
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovic Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $203 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $203 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $204 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $203 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 37¢ $204 23h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $203 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $204 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 23h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 47¢ $203 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $203 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $202 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $204 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $52 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 4d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $203 4d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $204 4d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 29¢ $204 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $205 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $204 4d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $204 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 12¢ $10 5d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 43¢ $203 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $203 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.16 · official $824.16 (match) · 89 history records