Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T12:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

03
0x032e…2a9e
sports · 115 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$141,531 -109%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$156,773 · open +$15,843
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$209,561
Realized−$156,773
Unrealized+$15,843
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses56 / 305
Whale WR (big bets)16%
Est. fees paid−$1,089
Open positions153
Markets (closed)361 / 115
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,125
Trades / day3451.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 153 History 361 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$156,773
7 days−$156,773
14 days−$156,773
30 days−$156,773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 37¢ 36¢ $37,308 $35,905 −$1,403 (-4%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 39¢ 81¢ $9,053 $19,038 +$9,986 (+110%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 49¢ 46¢ $14,696 $13,950 −$746 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $13,090 $13,095 +$5 (+0%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 48¢ 80¢ $5,656 $9,379 +$3,723 (+66%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 57¢ 81¢ $5,996 $8,591 +$2,595 (+43%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $7,860 $7,693 −$167 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $6,096 $6,245 +$149 (+2%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 57¢ $5,808 $5,858 +$51 (+1%)
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Knicks 52¢ 52¢ $4,964 $4,916 −$48 (-1%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 43¢ 80¢ $2,576 $4,797 +$2,221 (+86%)
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 99¢ $4,447 $4,690 +$242 (+5%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 46¢ $3,574 $3,536 −$39 (-1%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 41¢ 40¢ $3,403 $3,389 −$14 (-0%)
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 48¢ 46¢ $3,461 $3,293 −$168 (-5%)
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Spurs 63¢ 62¢ $3,012 $2,943 −$69 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 54¢ $2,706 $2,732 +$26 (+1%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Over 86¢ 80¢ $2,778 $2,602 −$176 (-6%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 62¢ $2,437 $2,582 +$145 (+6%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $2,577 $2,514 −$62 (-2%)
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Bangladesh 81¢ 100¢ $2,025 $2,511 +$487 (+24%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $2,442 $2,463 +$22 (+1%)
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 94¢ 95¢ $2,324 $2,349 +$24 (+1%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Los Angeles Dodgers 53¢ 100¢ $1,164 $2,198 +$1,034 (+89%)
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Knicks 48¢ 46¢ $2,231 $2,161 −$70 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 12 $2,025 −$650 -32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $1,164 +$1,026 +88%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $1,011 +$842 +83%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $391 +$320 +82%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $171 +$114 +67%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $102 +$95 +92%
Spread: Knicks (-18.5) Jun 12 $153 +$16 +11%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. S Jun 12 $40 +$43 +108%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $46 +$26 +56%
Spread: Knicks (-4.5) Jun 12 $37 +$27 +72%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 12 $50 +$3 +6%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $14 +$48 +339%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $28 +$29 +104%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 12 $40 +$12 +31%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $24 +$25 +104%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $21 +$28 +133%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $21 +$23 +108%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $27 +$15 +54%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $28 +$12 +43%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Ta Jun 12 $19 +$20 +104%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $22 +$10 +47%
1H Spread: Knicks (-7.5) Jun 12 $23 +$6 +28%
Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 12 $21 +$7 +33%
Spread: Spurs (-13.5) Jun 12 $21 +$7 +35%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals Jun 12 $15 +$13 +92%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 12 $16 +$10 +61%
Spread: Chicago Sky (-6.5) Jun 12 $13 +$13 +96%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $12 +$13 +114%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $17 +$8 +49%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $14 +$10 +75%
Spread: Knicks (-13.5) Jun 12 $19 +$4 +22%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 12 $10 +$11 +108%
Spread: Knicks (-15.5) Jun 12 $15 +$3 +16%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 12 $10 +$8 +82%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 12 $7 +$8 +122%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$6 +133%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 12 $4 +$8 +189%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +52%
Spread: Knicks (-20.5) Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $49 −$49 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-15.5) Jun 12 $20 −$17 -85%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 12 $2,700 −$2,700 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-23.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-16.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 52% +$27,340
sports 47% +$26,393
crypto 1% +$22
finance 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 2m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 9m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $47 9m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 11m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 11m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $266 20m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 71¢ $7 23m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 71¢ $7 23m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 29m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 29m
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 29m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $84 30m
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 30m
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 30m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $17 32m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $17 32m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $56 32m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $47 34m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $47 34m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $56 35m
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 73¢ $4 35m
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 36m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $24 38m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $24 38m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $12 42m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $12 42m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 53¢ $39 43m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 BUY Under 53¢ $23 44m
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 91¢ $48 45m
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 38¢ $3 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-72.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 361 -69.1% -72.1% 16% 15% -65.5%
≤30d 361 -69.1% -72.1% 16% 15% -65.5%
≤90d 361 -69.1% -72.1% 16% 15% -65.5%
all 361 -69.1% -72.1% 16% 15% -65.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3451.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -72.1% 15% -65.5%
10% -74.7% 13% -68.8%
15% ← realistic here -77.2% 11% -71.8%
20% -79.4% 10% -74.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209,560.51 · official $209,563.67 (match) · 3500 history records