trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -39.8% | -45.5% | 0% | 0% | -43.4% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -11.3% | -19.7% | 56% | 44% | -39.7% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -5.7% | -14.6% | 60% | 50% | -34.4% |
| all | 18 | +15.2% | +4.2% | 72% | 61% | -4.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +4.2% | 61% | -4.6% |
| 10% | -5.7% | 44% | -13.7% |
| 15% | -14.9% | 39% | -22.1% |
| 20% | -23.2% | 28% | -29.7% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 18¢ | $230 | $360 | +$130 (+57%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 22¢ | $203 | $218 | +$15 (+7%) |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 14¢ | 12¢ | $130 | $112 | −$18 (-14%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 11¢ | 10¢ | $58 | $53 | −$5 (-8%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jun 27 | $75 | −$34 | -45% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Jun 27 | $197 | −$68 | -34% |
| Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jun 19 | $8 | +$5 | +66% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $48 | +$13 | +26% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 15 | $7 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $6 | +$1 | +18% |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $28 | −$22 | -79% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 11 | $20 | +$8 | +39% |
| Moltbook AI agent sues a human by Feb 28? | Jun 11 | $49 | −$49 | -100% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | May 22 | $35 | +$16 | +45% |
| Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-02-28? | Mar 01 | $15 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-02-28? | Mar 01 | $15 | +$2 | +11% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Feb 08 | $146 | −$146 | -100% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 31 | $146 | +$247 | +169% |
| Will CF Monterrey vs. Deportivo Toluca FC end in a draw? | Jan 11 | $49 | +$6 | +13% |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? | Jan 04 | $19 | +$12 | +66% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Jan 01 | $47 | +$43 | +91% |
| Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2025-12-14? | Dec 15 | $20 | +$15 | +77% |