Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:33:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0327…6b01 crypto 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-7%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%8W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day25.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% +$33
other 27% −$46
sports 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+5.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 54% -10.5%
≤30d 13 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 54% -10.5%
≤90d 13 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 54% -10.5%
all 13 +16.6% +5.5% 62% 54% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.5% 54% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -4.6% 54% -19.1%
15% -13.8% 54% -26.9%
20% -22.3% 38% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +19% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses8 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day25.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 27 $25 −$24 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $40 −$36 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$5 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$19 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 27 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$8 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$16 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $25 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 AND BUY 11¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 32 history records