Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:21:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0326…3e1e politics 175 markets active 2h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$903 (+0%) realized +$902 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%31W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$1,334per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$569now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$25
14 days−$49
30 days−$162
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$129
other 35% −$168
sports 11% +$1,199
culture 3% −$9
world 2% −$47
economics 2% −$7
tech 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
finance 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 -1.2% -10.6% 7% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 120 -8.3% -17.0% 7% 5% -9.2%
all 172 -0.6% -10.1% 18% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 10% -9.2%
10% -18.7% 10% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 9% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 6% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,767) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$8 · ×7.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.77 per $1 lost it wins $1.77
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$569
Realized+$902
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses31 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions3
Markets (closed)172 / 175
History coverage144d
Avg bet$1,334
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 172 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $300 $300 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $134 $135 +$1 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $134 $134 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 22 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,205 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $4,185 −$5 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $248 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 18 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $317 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $1,284 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $4,378 −$4 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $5,425 −$8 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $8,493 −$8 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $2,744 −$3 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,585 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $2,675 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $2,558 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $383 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $564 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,920 −$4 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,768 −$3 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $649 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,566 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,587 −$3 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,822 −$5 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,756 −$3 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $512 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $58 +$39 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $57 +$45 +79%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $130 in May? Jun 02 $263 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $3,087 −$5 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $4,196 −$5 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $426 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $506 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $2,805 −$4 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 29 $471 −$1 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $4,294 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $286 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $433 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $2,100 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $6,477 −$7 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $300 1h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $353 18h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $353 20h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $283 20h
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $134 20h
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $284 21h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $202 24h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $203 26h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $236 47h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $236 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $248 2d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $248 3d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $250 4d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $250 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $316 4d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $317 4d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $227 5d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $228 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $480 5d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $481 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 5d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $452 6d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $453 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $440 6d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $440 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $442 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $442 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $345 7d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $346 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.10 · official $569.10 (match) · 612 history records