Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0326…3dae sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$6 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%9W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$133now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$79
other 18% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 31% -11.9%
≤30d 29 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 31% -11.9%
≤90d 29 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 31% -11.9%
all 29 +4.3% -5.7% 31% 31% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 31% -11.9%
10% -14.7% 31% -20.3%
15% -22.9% 31% -28.0%
20% -30.5% 31% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$20 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$133
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses9 / 20
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage3d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Over 35¢ 34¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Over 22¢ 22¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Spain 37¢ 34¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $9 +$40 +443%
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals Jun 15 $15 −$15 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $15 +$11 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 +$19 +121%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $55 +$151 +273%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $16 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $47 −$45 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $52 −$50 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -97%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $13 −$12 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 +$36 +349%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $51 −$50 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$19 +361%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $21 +$66 +321%
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$19 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $4 −$4 -96%
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $33 +$37 +112%
Jonathan David: 2+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 22¢ $26 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 37¢ $15 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $9 12h
Viktor Gyökeres: 2+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $15 13h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 36¢ $31 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $15 17h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 20¢ $16 23h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $26 25h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $55 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $20 26h
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $15 26h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $47 34h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $52 37h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 17¢ $31 38h
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $13 40h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $21 40h
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 21¢ $5 40h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 36¢ $51 47h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 24¢ $15 2d
Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 22¢ $10 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 19¢ $21 2d
Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $20 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $21 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over $4 2d
Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals BUY Yes $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $133.40 · official $133.40 (match) · 42 history records