Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
03 0x0324…2570 other 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate28%15W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$13
politics 13% −$8
other 5% +$6
sports 3% +$13
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 67% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 13 +8.7% -1.7% 23% 8% -7.9%
≤90d 40 +10.1% -0.4% 30% 20% -8.5%
all 54 +7.3% -2.9% 28% 15% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 15% -9.5%
10% -12.2% 15% -18.2%
15% -20.7% 13% -26.1%
20% -28.5% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses15 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage599d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 14 $26 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in May? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $85 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 25 $13 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $14 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $6 +$6 +114%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $20 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 19 $11 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $80 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $83 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $7 +$11 +152%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $72 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $74 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $153 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $79 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $78 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $72 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $7 +$6 +75%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 07 $7 +$10 +146%
Utah vs. Kraken Apr 06 $9 +$7 +75%
Blue Jackets vs. Hurricanes Apr 06 $21 +$12 +59%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Apr 02 $42 +$1 +3%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Open Rott Mar 26 $26 +$15 +59%
Suns vs. Spurs Mar 23 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 29 $13,527 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 18 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 21 $15 $0 -1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 16 $30 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $19 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 33h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 35h
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 18d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 18d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $19 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $19 19d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $11 20d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 20d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $13 21d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 21d
Will Solana reach $140 in May? BUY No 100¢ $33 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 23d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 23d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $20 25d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Liaoning Tieren FC win on 2026-05-20? BUY Yes 46¢ $6 26d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 27d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $11 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 27d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 27d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $83 34d
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $83 34d
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 39¢ $7 35d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $71 35d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $71 35d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $72 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.76 · official $52.76 (match) · 260 history records