Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x0320…e412 other 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate11%15W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$18
politics 33% −$14
sports 6% +$37
economics 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 113 -0.3% -9.8% 6% 4% -9.6%
all 132 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 7% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 7% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 6% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$1 · ×8.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses15 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage116d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $40 $0 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $238 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 12 $267 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $63 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $271 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $272 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $182 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $428 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $204 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $425 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $193 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 20 $178 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $191 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $688 −$1 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 17 $212 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $207 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $253 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $239 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $248 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $372 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $182 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $174 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $419 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 03 $404 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $372 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 02 $180 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $207 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 30 $188 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $188 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $461 $0 -0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $251 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $224 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $210 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $184 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $261 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $197 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $241 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 5h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $35 5h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $35 11h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 2d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $40 6d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $27 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $24 7d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $32 9d
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 11d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $41 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $41 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $182 14d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $182 19d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $190 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $190 27d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $204 29d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $204 29d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $221 29d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $221 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 388 history records