Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
03 0x0320…3757 sports 653 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,267 (-3%) realized −$3,269 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate72%462W / 184L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$158per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$112
14 days−$33
30 days−$552
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$4,032
other 6% +$49
world 4% +$196
politics 1% +$111
finance 1% +$59
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +13.5% +2.7% 76% 52% -12.5%
≤30d 172 -2.7% -12.0% 72% 48% -13.9%
≤90d 593 -0.3% -9.8% 72% 44% -12.2%
all 646 -0.7% -10.2% 72% 45% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 45% -12.4%
10% -18.8% 21% -20.8%
15% -26.6% 12% -28.5%
20% -33.8% 7% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$71 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$3,269
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses462 / 184
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions1
Markets (closed)646 / 653
History coverage113d
Avg bet$158
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 646 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Pegula 80¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Set 1 Winner: Begu vs Korpatsch Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe Jun 20 $6 +$1 +17%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 −$1 -26%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3 $0 +8%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $30 +$10 +32%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $50 +$17 +34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 +$16 +29%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $47 +$9 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $3 −$3 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $73 +$49 +67%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $75 +$12 +16%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $60 +$15 +24%
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Jun 18 $60 +$9 +14%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally Jun 18 $47 +$15 +31%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $6 +$1 +11%
Fabian Marozsan vs. Taylor Fritz: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 +$4 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $100 −$99 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $30 +$10 +34%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $106 +$24 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $99 +$10 +10%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$6 +6%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $88 +$6 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $69 +$19 +27%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$2 +152%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $65 +$4 +6%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $55 +$9 +17%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 16 $45 +$10 +23%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $35 +$11 +32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$24 +233%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $5 +$3 +67%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $181 +$19 +11%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $201 −$200 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026- Jun 15 $1 +$4 +382%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +250%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 +$6 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $301 +$19 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $151 +$54 +36%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $61 +$17 +28%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $301 +$29 +10%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $301 +$22 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Set 1 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula BUY Pegula 80¢ $8 46m
Set 1 Winner: Begu vs Korpatsch BUY Begu 97¢ $7 1h
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe SELL Gabi Adrian Boitan 99¢ $7 1h
ITF Constanta: Gabi Adrian Boitan vs Cezar Gabriel Papoe BUY Gabi Adrian Boitan 84¢ $6 3h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 4h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 88¢ $40 7h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 87¢ $39 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 75¢ $30 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $67 9h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 AND Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY 69¢ $20 10h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 74¢ $50 10h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL 99¢ $72 11h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY 76¢ $55 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 83¢ $47 31h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 AND Will United Stat BUY 21¢ $5 34h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 34h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $81 34h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 100¢ $122 38h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 59¢ $73 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 99¢ $87 38h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 85¢ $75 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $75 41h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $60 43h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 43¢ $10 43h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis SELL Titouan Droguet 100¢ $69 45h
Dublin: Titouan Droguet vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Titouan Droguet 87¢ $60 46h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally SELL Karolina Pliskova 99¢ $62 46h
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Caty McNally BUY Karolina Pliskova 96¢ $7 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.92 · official $9.92 (match) · 1517 history records