Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
03 0x031c…87ce other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 98d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this Fresh edge
Total PnL +$4,166 (+35%) realized +$3,590 · open +$576
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%22W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1,286now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$982
7 days+$1,504
14 days+$1,971
30 days+$1,971
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$1,043
other 34% +$1,587
finance 18% +$1,184
sports 6% +$274
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +62.7% +47.2% 61% 61% +27.3%
≤30d 24 +50.1% +35.8% 58% 58% +29.5%
≤90d 34 +39.3% +26.0% 65% 62% +20.1%
all 35 +35.3% +22.4% 63% 60% +19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +22.4% 60% +19.1%
10% +10.7% 54% +7.7%
15% +0.0% 51% -2.7%
20% -9.8% 40% -12.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +35% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$229 vs −$118 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$1,286
Realized+$3,590
Unrealized+$576
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses22 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage98d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 44¢ 94¢ $600 $1,286 +$686 (+114%)
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$110 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $503 +$105 +21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $142 +$162 +114%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $71 +$92 +129%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $504 +$201 +40%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $202 +$110 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $204 +$323 +158%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $123 −$120 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $61 +$211 +344%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 −$400 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $21 +$161 +785%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$202 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $506 +$356 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$251 +62%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $303 +$173 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $304 +$205 +67%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$255 +250%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 26 $400 +$92 +23%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $1,600 +$165 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $814 +$579 +71%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $500 +$195 +39%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $1,216 +$611 +50%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 11 $500 −$500 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 11 $500 +$200 +40%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will another country strike Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $426 +$87 +20%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Apr 01 $395 +$314 +80%
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 19, 2026? Mar 26 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 97¢ $608 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 5h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 5h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $71 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 46¢ $142 22h
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 22h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 71¢ $504 22h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $202 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $204 2d
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $123 4d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $404 5d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $61 6d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $405 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $304 9d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 9d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 10d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $102 10d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? SELL No 91¢ $492 31d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $1,765 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,286.02 · official $1,286.02 (match) · 65 history records