Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:07:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
03 0x031a…50b7 sports 172 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,041 (+0%) realized +$1,034 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate58%92W / 67L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$2,727est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,176now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days−$105
14 days+$277
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$254
other 7% −$877
politics 1% +$294
world 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.3% -24.3% 33% 11% -13.0%
≤30d 17 -8.5% -17.2% 47% 18% -10.5%
≤90d 137 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 32% -10.0%
all 159 -1.4% -10.8% 58% 35% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 35% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 25% -18.5%
15% -27.1% 17% -26.4%
20% -34.3% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$2,019) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$407 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$2,176
Realized+$1,034
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses92 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$2,727
Open positions13
Markets (closed)159 / 172
History coverage111d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 159 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $300 $294 −$6 (-2%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 66¢ 78¢ $225 $264 +$39 (+17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $150 $210 +$60 (+40%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 72¢ $225 $205 −$20 (-9%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 64¢ $219 $184 −$36 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $150 $172 +$22 (+15%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $150 $168 +$18 (+12%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 55¢ 44¢ $150 $119 −$31 (-20%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $150 $119 −$31 (-21%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 72¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 69¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Belgium win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 62¢ $100 $89 −$11 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $282 +$12 +4%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $231 −$82 -36%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $233 −$102 -44%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $401 +$38 +10%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$2 -5%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $565 −$136 -24%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $53 −$27 -51%
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $151 −$47 -31%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 13 $804 +$240 +30%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,847 −$283 -15%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $511 +$665 +130%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 30 $810 −$800 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $407 −$207 -51%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 29 $65 +$1 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $2,934 +$67 +2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $1,215 +$328 +27%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $2,407 +$190 +8%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1,315 +$68 +5%
Spread: Timberwolves (-2.5) May 16 $1,057 −$32 -3%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $1,421 −$107 -8%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $3,960 −$573 -14%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $2,611 +$392 +15%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $1,706 +$144 +8%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $1,507 +$11 +1%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $3,516 −$285 -8%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 07 $2,857 −$1,265 -44%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $3,949 +$87 +2%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) May 06 $4,616 −$666 -14%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 04 $2,019 −$580 -29%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $2,707 −$1,046 -39%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $4,603 +$96 +2%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $1,411 +$270 +19%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $41 −$12 -30%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $4,906 +$501 +10%
Spread: Celtics (-7.5) Apr 27 $3,750 +$81 +2%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $3,725 +$25 +1%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $5,316 +$43 +1%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $1,545 +$151 +10%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $3,372 +$185 +6%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $500 −$55 -11%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $3,366 +$70 +2%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 23 $3,141 +$226 +7%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Apr 23 $1,772 −$287 -16%
Spread: Thunder (-19.5) Apr 23 $227 −$31 -14%
Spread: Celtics (-13.5) Apr 22 $996 −$913 -92%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 22 $500 −$301 -60%
Spread: Celtics (-14.5) Apr 21 $1,423 −$507 -36%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $5,166 +$45 +1%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $3,000 +$205 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) Apr 20 $2,500 +$403 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $68 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $20 35m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $295 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 96¢ $282 22h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 52¢ $149 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 31¢ $132 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 79¢ $231 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $233 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $29 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 91¢ $401 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 63¢ $246 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 47¢ $183 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 71¢ $565 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 3d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 51¢ $104 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 4d
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 4d
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 4d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 4d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 4d
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 79¢ $75 4d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 66¢ $76 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $338 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $105 4d
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 87¢ $17 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,176.35 · official $2,176.39 (match) · 949 history records